Projected impacts of climate change on forests in the Brahmaputra, Koshi, and Upper Indus river basins
Two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), IBIS and LPJ, were used to assess the projected impacts of climate change on forests in terms of the shifts in vegetation types and changes in NPP (net primary productivity) in the mid Brahmaputra, Koshi, and upper Indus river basins. Changes were assessed for the mid-term (2021–2050) and longterm (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1961–1990) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using precipitation and temperature as the key climate variables. The DGVMs were driven by the ensemble mean climate projections from five CMIP5 climate models. While both DGVMs projected vegetation shifts in the forest areas of the basins, there were differences in the area projected to be affected by the shifts. This can be attributed mainly to differences in the representation of land surface processes and in the number of vegetation types (plant functional types) defined and simulated in the two models. There was some agreement in the changes in NPP projected by the two models under the high emission RCP8.5 scenario, but with differences in degree.
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Texto biblioteca |
| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
Kathmandu (Nepal) ICIMOD
2017
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| Subjects: | climate change, impact assessment, forests, watersheds, forest ecosystems, local communities, climate change adaptation, models, |
| Online Access: | http://lib.icimod.org/record/32503/files/icimodRR2017-1.pdf |
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| Summary: | Two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), IBIS and LPJ, were used to assess the projected impacts of climate change on forests in terms of the shifts in vegetation types and changes in NPP (net primary productivity) in the mid Brahmaputra, Koshi, and upper Indus river basins. Changes were assessed for the mid-term (2021–2050) and longterm (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1961–1990) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using precipitation and temperature as the key climate variables. The DGVMs were driven by the ensemble mean climate projections from five CMIP5 climate models. While both DGVMs projected vegetation shifts in the forest areas of the basins, there were differences in the area projected to be affected by the shifts. This can be attributed mainly to differences in the representation of land surface processes and in the number of vegetation types (plant functional types) defined and simulated in the two models. There was some agreement in the changes in NPP projected by the two models under the high emission RCP8.5 scenario, but with differences in degree. |
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