From rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in ParaguayFrom rising temperature to rising health concerns: A study of climate change effects in Paraguay
Projected temperature increases in Paraguay are expected to significantly impact public health. This study assesses the current health burden from adverse temperature conditions using mortality and morbidity data, and estimates future consequences under various climate models and emissions scenarios. According to the Global Burden of Disease, non-optimal temperatures caused approximately 640 deaths in Paraguay in 2019, 1.6% of total mortality. Cardiovascular diseases have the highest mortality rates, while infectious diseases are most impacted by heat exposure. Using panel data from 2015 to 2019, our econometric model suggests that non-optimal temperatures result in approximately 2,013 hospitalizations and 157,300 doctor visits annually within the public health system, representing 0.94% of hospitalizations and 1.97% of doctor visits. Our morbidity analysis reveals that seniors are more affected by higher-than-optimal temperatures, with hospitalizations among men and doctor visits for both genders increasing during high temperatures. To project future health burdens, we employ a comparative risk assessment for mortality estimation and applied our econometric model for morbidity evaluation. Comparing 2020 to 2050, we project an average increase in the mortality rate attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1.5% and 21.6%, depending on the climate scenario. Hospitalizations are expected to double and doctor visits to triple during this period under the worst climate projections.
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Artículo biblioteca |
| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2024
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| Subjects: | MORTALIDAD, CAMBIO CLIMATICO, HOSPITALIZACIONES, TEMPERATURA AMBIENTAL, SALUD PUBLICA, |
| Online Access: | https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/19092 |
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| Summary: | Projected temperature increases in Paraguay are expected to significantly impact public health. This study
assesses the current health burden from adverse temperature conditions using mortality and morbidity data,
and estimates future consequences under various climate models and emissions scenarios. According to
the Global Burden of Disease, non-optimal temperatures caused approximately 640 deaths in Paraguay in
2019, 1.6% of total mortality. Cardiovascular diseases have the highest mortality rates, while infectious
diseases are most impacted by heat exposure. Using panel data from 2015 to 2019, our econometric model
suggests that non-optimal temperatures result in approximately 2,013 hospitalizations and 157,300 doctor
visits annually within the public health system, representing 0.94% of hospitalizations and 1.97% of doctor
visits. Our morbidity analysis reveals that seniors are more affected by higher-than-optimal temperatures,
with hospitalizations among men and doctor visits for both genders increasing during high temperatures. To
project future health burdens, we employ a comparative risk assessment for mortality estimation and applied
our econometric model for morbidity evaluation. Comparing 2020 to 2050, we project an average increase
in the mortality rate attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1.5% and 21.6%, depending on the
climate scenario. Hospitalizations are expected to double and doctor visits to triple during this period under
the worst climate projections. |
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