Economic growth, tourism, and economic policy uncertainty in the main tourist destinations (1998-2018)
Abstract Objective: to study the relationship among tourism demand and economic growth, real exchange rate, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Australia China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Methodology: cross-section dependence, unit root, and cointegration tests were applied. The long-term model was estimated according to the Panel-Corrected Standard Error (PCSE), Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS), and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS). Results: the results show a positive relationship between economic growth and the real exchange rate concerning tourism demand. In the long term, the causality relationship is from uncertainty, exchange rate, and GDP to tourism. The feedback hypothesis is validated. Limitations: availability of data. Originality: it studies the joint influence of economic growth and the EPU on demand for tourism in the countries of the world’s leading destinations for international tourism according to international tourist income. Conclusions: tourism will drive general economic growth and, correspondingly, investment in other sectors of the economy will also influence an increase in tourism.
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Digital revista |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universidad de Guadalajara
2024
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| Online Access: | http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1870-66222024000100071 |
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| Summary: | Abstract Objective: to study the relationship among tourism demand and economic growth, real exchange rate, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Australia China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Methodology: cross-section dependence, unit root, and cointegration tests were applied. The long-term model was estimated according to the Panel-Corrected Standard Error (PCSE), Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS), and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS). Results: the results show a positive relationship between economic growth and the real exchange rate concerning tourism demand. In the long term, the causality relationship is from uncertainty, exchange rate, and GDP to tourism. The feedback hypothesis is validated. Limitations: availability of data. Originality: it studies the joint influence of economic growth and the EPU on demand for tourism in the countries of the world’s leading destinations for international tourism according to international tourist income. Conclusions: tourism will drive general economic growth and, correspondingly, investment in other sectors of the economy will also influence an increase in tourism. |
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