Is it possible to eliminate hepatitis C from the prisons of Catalonia, Spain, in 2021?
ABSTRACT Aim: Predict the elimination of chronic hepatitis C in Catalan prisons. Material and method: We analyzed the trend of the prevalence of HCV-RNA and anti-hepatitis C treatments prescribed in Catalonia in the period 2002-2016. Using linear exponential smoothing from the historical values in the time series, we estimate the time required to eliminate hepatitis C as a public health problem in prisons (prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA<1%). Results: A total of 1264 treatments were administered by 12/31/2016. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA was 31.2% in 2002, decreasing to 8.81% in 2016. We estimate that prevalence will reach 0-0.5% in 5 years (second half 2021; 95% CI: 2019-2025). Discussion: Appropriate actions can eliminate hepatitis C infection in prisoners. We estimate that by 2021 hepatitis C infection will no longer be a public health problem in Catalonia prisons.
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Digital revista |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Sociedad Española de Sanidad Penitenciaria
2019
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| Online Access: | http://scielo.isciii.es/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1575-06202019000100038 |
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| Summary: | ABSTRACT Aim: Predict the elimination of chronic hepatitis C in Catalan prisons. Material and method: We analyzed the trend of the prevalence of HCV-RNA and anti-hepatitis C treatments prescribed in Catalonia in the period 2002-2016. Using linear exponential smoothing from the historical values in the time series, we estimate the time required to eliminate hepatitis C as a public health problem in prisons (prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA<1%). Results: A total of 1264 treatments were administered by 12/31/2016. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA was 31.2% in 2002, decreasing to 8.81% in 2016. We estimate that prevalence will reach 0-0.5% in 5 years (second half 2021; 95% CI: 2019-2025). Discussion: Appropriate actions can eliminate hepatitis C infection in prisoners. We estimate that by 2021 hepatitis C infection will no longer be a public health problem in Catalonia prisons. |
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