Foreign trade : import and export projections
The principal imports in the annual trade statistics on the assumption that past trends could safely be projected into the future; or one could use simple geometric projections on the basis of high, medium or low assumption on of the growth rate, just as population projections are frequently made. Thus one could assume, in the latter case, that a given increase in imports of a certain commodity is associated with a given percentage rise in the gross domestic product set high medium and low rates of growth of total output and project the commodity import on these three alternative rates. Alternatively, import requirements may be projected on the basis of development projects in addition to the normal import requirements of the country. Unlike import projections which are made on the basis of domestic demand, export projections are commonly made on the basis of external demand for a given country exports. Thus one way is to link domestic exports of a country to world demand in general for such types of exports. In effect this boils down to the demand by major industrial users of the experts, but experts may also be more specifically linked to the demand by major customers.
| Format: | Working paper biblioteca |
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| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
1964
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| Summary: | The principal imports in the annual trade statistics on the assumption that past trends could safely be projected into the future; or one could use simple geometric projections on the basis of high, medium or low assumption on of the growth rate, just as population projections are frequently made. Thus one could assume, in the latter case, that a given increase in imports of a certain commodity is associated with a given percentage rise in the gross domestic product set high medium and low rates of growth of total output and project the commodity import on these three alternative rates. Alternatively, import requirements may be projected on the basis of development projects in addition to the normal import requirements of the country. Unlike import projections which are made on the basis of domestic demand, export projections are commonly made on the basis of external demand for a given country exports. Thus one way is to link domestic exports of a country to world demand in general for such types of exports. In effect this boils down to the demand by major industrial users of the experts, but experts may also be more specifically linked to the demand by major customers. |
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