Structural Change and Poverty Reduction in Brazil : The Impact of the Doha Round

Over the medium time horizon, skill upgrading, differentials in sectoral technological progress, and migration of labor out of farming activities are some of the major structural adjustment factors shaping the evolution of an economy and its connected poverty trends. The main focus of the authors is understanding, for the case of Brazil, how a trade shock interacts with these structural forces and ascertaining whether it enhances or hinders medium-term poverty reduction. In particular, they consider the interactions between the migration of labor out of agriculture, a potentially important poverty reduction factor, and trade liberalization, which increases the price incentives to stay in agriculture. A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium model simulates Doha scenarios and compares them against a business as usual scenario. The authors estimate the poverty effects using a microsimulation model that primarily takes into account individuals' labor supply decisions. Their analysis shows that trade liberalization does contribute to structural poverty reduction. But unless increased productivity and stronger growth rates are attributed to trade reform, its contribution to medium-term poverty reduction is rather small.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Bussolo, Maurizio, Lay, Jann, van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2006-02
Subjects:	ADVERSE IMPACT, AGRARIAN REFORM, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT, AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS, AGRICULTURAL INCOMES, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURAL SECTORS, AGRICULTURAL WAGES, AGRICULTURAL WORKERS, AGRICULTURE, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATE, AVERAGE WAGE, BENCHMARK, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CASH TRANSFER PROGRAM, CHANGES IN POVERTY, CHRONIC POVERTY, DENSITY FUNCTION, DEREGULATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISTRIBUTIONAL DYNAMICS, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICES, DRIVERS, EARNING, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC TRENDS, EDUCATIONAL LEVELS, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EMPLOYMENT HISTORIES, EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE, EMPLOYMENT LEVELS, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES, EQUATIONS, EQUILIBRIUM, ERROR TERM, ESTIMATION METHOD, ESTIMATION RESULTS, EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, EXPECTED WAGES, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, EXPORT TAXES, EXPORTS, EXTREME POVERTY, FACTOR MARKETS, FACTOR PRICES, FAMILY MEMBERS, FARMING ACTIVITIES, FINDING EMPLOYMENT, FISCAL POLICIES, FIXED COSTS, GENDER, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HEADCOUNT RATIO, HIGH INEQUALITY, HIGH INEQUALITY COUNTRIES, HIGH POVERTY, HOUSEHOLD ENTERPRISE, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPACT ON POVERTY REDUCTION, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS, INCOME GAINS, INCOME GENERATION, INCOMES FROM AGRICULTURE, INFORMAL SECTOR, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, JOBS, LABOR DEMAND, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET SEGMENTATION, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR MOVEMENTS, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LABOR SUPPLIES, LABOR SUPPLY, LAND OWNERSHIP, LAND REFORM, LANDOWNER, LIVESTOCK, LIVESTOCK SECTOR, LOW SHARE, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MARGINAL EFFECT, MEDIUM TERM, MICRO DATA, MICRO MODEL, MULTILATERAL TRADE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEGATIVE EFFECT, NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES, OCCUPATION, ON-THE-JOB TRAINING, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POLICY RESEARCH, POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCING, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES, POVERTY TRAPS, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRODUCTION PROCESS, PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, REAL GDP, REFORM PROGRAM, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, RELATIVE INCOMES, RELATIVE PRICES, RISING UNEMPLOYMENT, RISK AVERSION, RURAL AREAS, RURAL LIVELIHOODS, RURAL POOR, RURAL POPULATION, RURAL POVERTY, SCHOOLING, SELF-EMPLOYMENT, SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION, SKILL UPGRADING, SKILLED WORKERS, SMALL FARMS, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL POVERTY, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REFORMS, UNEMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, UNEQUAL DISTRIBUTION, UNSKILLED LABOR, UNSKILLED WORKERS, URBAN AREAS, URBAN POOR, URBAN POVERTY, UTILITY FUNCTION, VALUE ADDED, WAGE DIFFERENTIAL, WAGE DIFFERENTIALS, WAGE RATE, WAGE RATES, WAGES, WORKER, WORKERS, WTO,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/02/6559532/structural-change-poverty-reduction-brazil-impact-doha-round http://hdl.handle.net/10986/8780
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