Economic Sentiments and Expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa in a Time of Multiple Shocks
Against the background of high inflation, climate shocks, and concerns about rising food insecurity, this study documents the state of economic sentiments and expectations of households in five African countries—Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda—that are home to 36 percent of the Sub-Saharan African population. Leveraging nationally representative phone survey data, 57 percent of households across the five countries report that their financial situation and their country’s economic situation have worsened significantly in the past 12 months. While expectations for the future are more positive, there are marked differences across countries that suggest uneven recovery prospects and nonnegligible uncertainty about the future. Households overwhelmingly report prices to have increased considerably over the past 12 months and expect prices to increase faster, or at the same rate, over the next 12 months. Close to 54 percent of households—home to 206 million individuals—further expect that climate shocks will have adverse impacts on their finances in the next year. Economic sentiments are closely related to livelihood outcomes such as food insecurity, lack of access to staple foods, income loss, and unemployment, and sentiments about the household financial situation, country economic situation, price increases, and climate shocks are also interdependent. Households whose financial situation has worsened in the past year are consistently more pessimistic about their financial future. Food insecure households, in particular, are not only more likely to report a worsening financial situation in the recent past and pessimism about the future, but also more likely to expect to be adversely impacted by climate shocks.
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
Washington, DC: World Bank
2023-11-21
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| Subjects: | ECONOMIC SENTIMENT, EXPECTATIONS, SCHOCKS, PHONE SURVEY, LIVING STANDARDS MEASUREMENT SURVEY DATA, UNCERTAINTY, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099534511142334272/IDU0aaa58d140265a04ad308d9301eafc488f2cb https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40638 |
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| Summary: | Against the background of high
inflation, climate shocks, and concerns about rising food
insecurity, this study documents the state of economic
sentiments and expectations of households in five African
countries—Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and
Uganda—that are home to 36 percent of the Sub-Saharan
African population. Leveraging nationally representative
phone survey data, 57 percent of households across the five
countries report that their financial situation and their
country’s economic situation have worsened significantly in
the past 12 months. While expectations for the future are
more positive, there are marked differences across countries
that suggest uneven recovery prospects and nonnegligible
uncertainty about the future. Households overwhelmingly
report prices to have increased considerably over the past
12 months and expect prices to increase faster, or at the
same rate, over the next 12 months. Close to 54 percent of
households—home to 206 million individuals—further expect
that climate shocks will have adverse impacts on their
finances in the next year. Economic sentiments are closely
related to livelihood outcomes such as food insecurity, lack
of access to staple foods, income loss, and unemployment,
and sentiments about the household financial situation,
country economic situation, price increases, and climate
shocks are also interdependent. Households whose financial
situation has worsened in the past year are consistently
more pessimistic about their financial future. Food insecure
households, in particular, are not only more likely to
report a worsening financial situation in the recent past
and pessimism about the future, but also more likely to
expect to be adversely impacted by climate shocks. |
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