A Spatial Perspective on Booms and Busts
This paper combines official subnational and remote-sensed data to uncover the relationships between business cycles in Türkiye and the corresponding changes in economic activity at lower levels of spatial aggregation. The objective is to document changes in the nature of growth within and across business cycles, with a focus on understanding how sectoral changes interact with within-country remoteness during each phase. The paper shows that: (i) the significant growth between 2010 and 2017 was bookended by recessions in which gross domestic product per capita fell more sharply the closer a province was to one of the two largest cities; (ii) the two recessions differed in terms of their sectoral impacts, with manufacturing declines inversely related to remoteness during the first recession and positively related during the second; (iii) there were large increases in the construction sector’s gross value added during the post-2009 rebound—consistent with unprecedented increases in nighttime light luminosity—with growth positively related to remoteness; and (iv) changes in nighttime light luminosity are correlated with changes in physical activity: a 10 percent increase in nighttime lights is associated with a 3.5 percent increase in construction output and a 1.5 percent increase in manufacturing output. Together, the results suggest that recessions and recoveries that may appear to be similar at a macroeconomic scale may be driven by very different changes at more disaggregated spatial scales and have varied impacts on regional convergence.
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2023-08-30
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| Subjects: | SPATIAL INEQUALITY, REGIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, MEASUREMENT OF NATIONAL INCOME, DATA ON NATIONAL INCOME, MACROECONOMIC ANALYSES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC GROWTH CYCLES, BUSINESS CYCLES AND GROWTH, ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099808208242326348/IDU0864ea00003d7104c180bebd0960c4ca02082 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40297 |
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| Summary: | This paper combines official
subnational and remote-sensed data to uncover the
relationships between business cycles in Türkiye and the
corresponding changes in economic activity at lower levels
of spatial aggregation. The objective is to document changes
in the nature of growth within and across business cycles,
with a focus on understanding how sectoral changes interact
with within-country remoteness during each phase. The paper
shows that: (i) the significant growth between 2010 and 2017
was bookended by recessions in which gross domestic product
per capita fell more sharply the closer a province was to
one of the two largest cities; (ii) the two recessions
differed in terms of their sectoral impacts, with
manufacturing declines inversely related to remoteness
during the first recession and positively related during the
second; (iii) there were large increases in the construction
sector’s gross value added during the post-2009
rebound—consistent with unprecedented increases in nighttime
light luminosity—with growth positively related to
remoteness; and (iv) changes in nighttime light luminosity
are correlated with changes in physical activity: a 10
percent increase in nighttime lights is associated with a
3.5 percent increase in construction output and a 1.5
percent increase in manufacturing output. Together, the
results suggest that recessions and recoveries that may
appear to be similar at a macroeconomic scale may be driven
by very different changes at more disaggregated spatial
scales and have varied impacts on regional convergence. |
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