From Middle Class to Poverty
This study combines pre-COVID-19 household surveys with 2020 macro data to simulate changes in household economic welfare and poverty rates through job losses, labor income changes, and non-labor (remittance) income changes during 2020 in Brazil, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, South Africa, and Türkiye. It first presents an in-depth analysis of employment elasticities projections—a critical input in microsimulations—for 15 developing countries. In 11 of the 15 countries, employment estimates for 2020 based on elasticities were within 5 percent of the actual employment level, but in four countries, where the labor markets were more disrupted by the pandemic, the projections considerably underestimated job losses due to the crisis. The study then presents the simulation results for the five countries, which show declines in per capita household income or consumption across the distribution, a decline in the middle class, and increased poverty, but no other clear pattern of impacts across the different quintiles. Finally, data from Brazil indicate that the simulation underestimated the magnitude of the shock throughout the distribution, especially for the wealthy, because it underestimated declines in earnings.
Main Authors: | , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
Language: | English English |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2023-02-15T22:08:14Z
|
Subjects: | MICROSIMULATION, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT, HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE, HOUSEHOLD POVERTY, COVID-19 JOB LOSS, LABOR MARKET, |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099656502132311742/IDU03013bde50269504e01092b7030c1e1cf85c9 https://worldbank7-prod.atmire.com/handle/10986/39444 |
Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
id |
dig-okr-1098639444 |
---|---|
record_format |
koha |
spelling |
dig-okr-10986394442023-03-06T16:07:01Z From Middle Class to Poverty The Unequal Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Developing Countries Viollaz, Mariana Duque, Daniel Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina Newhouse, David Weber, Michael MICROSIMULATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD POVERTY COVID-19 JOB LOSS LABOR MARKET This study combines pre-COVID-19 household surveys with 2020 macro data to simulate changes in household economic welfare and poverty rates through job losses, labor income changes, and non-labor (remittance) income changes during 2020 in Brazil, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, South Africa, and Türkiye. It first presents an in-depth analysis of employment elasticities projections—a critical input in microsimulations—for 15 developing countries. In 11 of the 15 countries, employment estimates for 2020 based on elasticities were within 5 percent of the actual employment level, but in four countries, where the labor markets were more disrupted by the pandemic, the projections considerably underestimated job losses due to the crisis. The study then presents the simulation results for the five countries, which show declines in per capita household income or consumption across the distribution, a decline in the middle class, and increased poverty, but no other clear pattern of impacts across the different quintiles. Finally, data from Brazil indicate that the simulation underestimated the magnitude of the shock throughout the distribution, especially for the wealthy, because it underestimated declines in earnings. 2023-02-15T22:08:14Z 2023-03-06T16:07:00Z 2023-02-15T22:08:14Z 2023-03-06T16:07:00Z 2023-02 Working Paper Document de travail Documento de trabajo http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099656502132311742/IDU03013bde50269504e01092b7030c1e1cf85c9 https://worldbank7-prod.atmire.com/handle/10986/39444 English en Policy Research Working Papers;10304 CC BY 3.0 IGO World Bank http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo application/pdf text/plain World Bank, Washington, DC |
institution |
Banco Mundial |
collection |
DSpace |
country |
Estados Unidos |
countrycode |
US |
component |
Bibliográfico |
access |
En linea |
databasecode |
dig-okr |
tag |
biblioteca |
region |
America del Norte |
libraryname |
Biblioteca del Banco Mundial |
language |
English English |
topic |
MICROSIMULATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD POVERTY COVID-19 JOB LOSS LABOR MARKET MICROSIMULATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD POVERTY COVID-19 JOB LOSS LABOR MARKET |
spellingShingle |
MICROSIMULATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD POVERTY COVID-19 JOB LOSS LABOR MARKET MICROSIMULATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD POVERTY COVID-19 JOB LOSS LABOR MARKET Viollaz, Mariana Duque, Daniel Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina Newhouse, David Weber, Michael From Middle Class to Poverty |
description |
This study combines pre-COVID-19
household surveys with 2020 macro data to simulate changes
in household economic welfare and poverty rates through job
losses, labor income changes, and non-labor (remittance)
income changes during 2020 in Brazil, Sri Lanka, the
Philippines, South Africa, and Türkiye. It first presents an
in-depth analysis of employment elasticities projections—a
critical input in microsimulations—for 15 developing
countries. In 11 of the 15 countries, employment estimates
for 2020 based on elasticities were within 5 percent of the
actual employment level, but in four countries, where the
labor markets were more disrupted by the pandemic, the
projections considerably underestimated job losses due to
the crisis. The study then presents the simulation results
for the five countries, which show declines in per capita
household income or consumption across the distribution, a
decline in the middle class, and increased poverty, but no
other clear pattern of impacts across the different
quintiles. Finally, data from Brazil indicate that the
simulation underestimated the magnitude of the shock
throughout the distribution, especially for the wealthy,
because it underestimated declines in earnings. |
format |
Working Paper |
topic_facet |
MICROSIMULATION ECONOMIC SHOCKS DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE HOUSEHOLD POVERTY COVID-19 JOB LOSS LABOR MARKET |
author |
Viollaz, Mariana Duque, Daniel Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina Newhouse, David Weber, Michael |
author_facet |
Viollaz, Mariana Duque, Daniel Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina Newhouse, David Weber, Michael |
author_sort |
Viollaz, Mariana |
title |
From Middle Class to Poverty |
title_short |
From Middle Class to Poverty |
title_full |
From Middle Class to Poverty |
title_fullStr |
From Middle Class to Poverty |
title_full_unstemmed |
From Middle Class to Poverty |
title_sort |
from middle class to poverty |
publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
publishDate |
2023-02-15T22:08:14Z |
url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099656502132311742/IDU03013bde50269504e01092b7030c1e1cf85c9 https://worldbank7-prod.atmire.com/handle/10986/39444 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT viollazmariana frommiddleclasstopoverty AT duquedaniel frommiddleclasstopoverty AT diazbonillacarolina frommiddleclasstopoverty AT newhousedavid frommiddleclasstopoverty AT webermichael frommiddleclasstopoverty AT viollazmariana theunequalimpactsofthecovid19pandemicondevelopingcountries AT duquedaniel theunequalimpactsofthecovid19pandemicondevelopingcountries AT diazbonillacarolina theunequalimpactsofthecovid19pandemicondevelopingcountries AT newhousedavid theunequalimpactsofthecovid19pandemicondevelopingcountries AT webermichael theunequalimpactsofthecovid19pandemicondevelopingcountries |
_version_ |
1767604131213606912 |