From Middle Class to Poverty
This study combines pre-COVID-19 household surveys with 2020 macro data to simulate changes in household economic welfare and poverty rates through job losses, labor income changes, and non-labor (remittance) income changes during 2020 in Brazil, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, South Africa, and Türkiye. It first presents an in-depth analysis of employment elasticities projections—a critical input in microsimulations—for 15 developing countries. In 11 of the 15 countries, employment estimates for 2020 based on elasticities were within 5 percent of the actual employment level, but in four countries, where the labor markets were more disrupted by the pandemic, the projections considerably underestimated job losses due to the crisis. The study then presents the simulation results for the five countries, which show declines in per capita household income or consumption across the distribution, a decline in the middle class, and increased poverty, but no other clear pattern of impacts across the different quintiles. Finally, data from Brazil indicate that the simulation underestimated the magnitude of the shock throughout the distribution, especially for the wealthy, because it underestimated declines in earnings.
Main Authors: | , , , , |
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Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
Language: | English English |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2023-02-15T22:08:14Z
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Subjects: | MICROSIMULATION, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT, HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC WELFARE, HOUSEHOLD POVERTY, COVID-19 JOB LOSS, LABOR MARKET, |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099656502132311742/IDU03013bde50269504e01092b7030c1e1cf85c9 https://worldbank7-prod.atmire.com/handle/10986/39444 |
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Summary: | This study combines pre-COVID-19
household surveys with 2020 macro data to simulate changes
in household economic welfare and poverty rates through job
losses, labor income changes, and non-labor (remittance)
income changes during 2020 in Brazil, Sri Lanka, the
Philippines, South Africa, and Türkiye. It first presents an
in-depth analysis of employment elasticities projections—a
critical input in microsimulations—for 15 developing
countries. In 11 of the 15 countries, employment estimates
for 2020 based on elasticities were within 5 percent of the
actual employment level, but in four countries, where the
labor markets were more disrupted by the pandemic, the
projections considerably underestimated job losses due to
the crisis. The study then presents the simulation results
for the five countries, which show declines in per capita
household income or consumption across the distribution, a
decline in the middle class, and increased poverty, but no
other clear pattern of impacts across the different
quintiles. Finally, data from Brazil indicate that the
simulation underestimated the magnitude of the shock
throughout the distribution, especially for the wealthy,
because it underestimated declines in earnings. |
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