Tracking Economic Fluctuations in Bangladesh with Electricity Consumption
This paper investigates whether electricity consumption is a useful indicator for tracking economic fluctuations in Bangladesh. It presents monthly data on national electricity consumption since 1993 and daily consumption data since February 2010 for the country’s eight divisions. National electricity consumption is strongly correlated with other high-frequency indicators of economic activity, and it has declined during natural disasters and the COVID-19 lockdowns. The paper estimates an electricity consumption model that explains over 90 percent of the variation in daily consumption based on the trend, seasonality, within-week variation, holidays, Ramadan, and temperature. Deviations from the model prediction can act as in indicator of economic fluctuations. For example, during the first COVID-19 lockdown in April 2020, electricity consumption in Dhaka fell over 40 percent compared with normal and remained below the normal level until early 2021. The later lockdowns, in contrast, had only small additional impacts, in line with less stringent containment measures and more effective adaptation.
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2022-04
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| Subjects: | ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS, COVID-19, PANDEMIC, CORONAVIRUS, NATURAL DISASTERS, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDICATOR, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099239404072234329/IDU02a02a0540a4e3044450946b009fbff8f4528 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37296 |
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| Summary: | This paper investigates whether
electricity consumption is a useful indicator for tracking
economic fluctuations in Bangladesh. It presents monthly
data on national electricity consumption since 1993 and
daily consumption data since February 2010 for the country’s
eight divisions. National electricity consumption is
strongly correlated with other high-frequency indicators of
economic activity, and it has declined during natural
disasters and the COVID-19 lockdowns. The paper estimates an
electricity consumption model that explains over 90 percent
of the variation in daily consumption based on the trend,
seasonality, within-week variation, holidays, Ramadan, and
temperature. Deviations from the model prediction can act as
in indicator of economic fluctuations. For example, during
the first COVID-19 lockdown in April 2020, electricity
consumption in Dhaka fell over 40 percent compared with
normal and remained below the normal level until early 2021.
The later lockdowns, in contrast, had only small additional
impacts, in line with less stringent containment measures
and more effective adaptation. |
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