Kazakhstan Economic Update, Winter 2021/2022
After suffering a pandemic-driven slump in 2020, Kazakhstan’s economic recovery is on track, having sustained quarterly growth throughout Q3 2021. Reduced COVID-19 cases and the loosening of mobility restrictions support business activities and maintain the rebound in consumer demand. However, annual inflation surged to the highest recorded level since 2016, driven mostly by food price inflation and large-scale disruptions in global supply chains, eroding purchasing power, particularly for lower-income households. We project real GDP growth in the 3.5-4.0 percent range in 2022, although the economy will remain below the pre-pandemic baseline path for the entire forecast horizon. Growth will be supported by robust domestic activity, a supportive fiscal stance, and further progress in vaccination. Despite the improving economic outlook, downside risks remain. The risk of another potential COVID-19 outbreak cannot be ruled out. Rising inflation is another concern and would require a tighter monetary stance, potentially affecting domestic borrowing conditions. Volatile prices and uncertainty over the scale of demand growth for oil are other risks that could weaken the current account and pressure the exchange rate.
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| Format: | Report biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021-12-22
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| Subjects: | ECONOMIC GROWTH, CORONAVIRUS, COVID-19, PANDEMIC IMPACT, INFLATION, EXTERNAL BALANCE, MONETARY POLICY, FISCAL TRENDS, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC RECOVERY, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/566741640158785669/Winter-2021-2022 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/36772 |
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| Summary: | After suffering a pandemic-driven
slump in 2020, Kazakhstan’s economic recovery is on track,
having sustained quarterly growth throughout Q3 2021.
Reduced COVID-19 cases and the loosening of mobility
restrictions support business activities and maintain the
rebound in consumer demand. However, annual inflation surged
to the highest recorded level since 2016, driven mostly by
food price inflation and large-scale disruptions in global
supply chains, eroding purchasing power, particularly for
lower-income households. We project real GDP growth in the
3.5-4.0 percent range in 2022, although the economy will
remain below the pre-pandemic baseline path for the entire
forecast horizon. Growth will be supported by robust
domestic activity, a supportive fiscal stance, and further
progress in vaccination. Despite the improving economic
outlook, downside risks remain. The risk of another
potential COVID-19 outbreak cannot be ruled out. Rising
inflation is another concern and would require a tighter
monetary stance, potentially affecting domestic borrowing
conditions. Volatile prices and uncertainty over the scale
of demand growth for oil are other risks that could weaken
the current account and pressure the exchange rate. |
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