Good Countries or Good Projects? Macro and Micro Correlates of World Bank Project Performance

Good Countries or Good Projects? Macro and Micro Correlates of World Bank Project Performance

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The authors use data from more than 6,000 World Bank projects evaluated between 1983 and 2009 to investigate macro and micro correlates of project outcomes. They find that country-level "macro" measures of the quality of policies and institutions are very strongly correlated with project outcomes, confirming the importance of country-level performance for the effective use of aid resources. However, a striking feature of the data is that the success of individual development projects varies much more within countries than it does between countries. The authors assemble a large set of project-level "micro" correlates of project outcomes in an effort to explain some of this within-country variation. They find that measures of project size, the extent of project supervision, and evaluation lags are all significantly correlated with project outcomes, as are early-warning indicators that flag problematic projects during the implementation stage. They also find that measures of World Bank project task manager quality matter significantly for the ultimate outcome of projects. They discuss the implications of these findings for donor policies aimed at aid effectiveness.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Denizer, Cevdet, Kaufmann, Daniel, Kraay, Aart
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2011-05-01
Subjects:ACCOUNTING, ADJUSTMENT OPERATIONS, ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS, AGRICULTURE, BANK LENDING, BENCHMARK, COMMUNITIES, COMPLEMENTARITIES, COUNTRY EFFECTS, COUNTRY PROJECT, DESCRIPTION, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC RATE OF RETURN, ECONOMIC SECTORS, ECONOMIC SURVEYS, EVALUATION METHODS, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FLEXIBILITY, GDP, GENDER, ICR, IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERVENTION, LEADING INDICATORS, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMICS, MONITORING DATA, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRODUCTIVITY, PROGRAMS, PROJECT EVALUATION, PROJECT MANAGEMENT, PROJECT MONITORING, PROJECT OBJECTIVES, PROJECT PERFORMANCE, REAL GDP, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, SUBSIDIARY, TARGETING, TASK MANAGERS, TRANSPORT, URBAN DEVELOPMENT,
Online Access:http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110502085201
https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3410
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Summary:The authors use data from more than 6,000 World Bank projects evaluated between 1983 and 2009 to investigate macro and micro correlates of project outcomes. They find that country-level "macro" measures of the quality of policies and institutions are very strongly correlated with project outcomes, confirming the importance of country-level performance for the effective use of aid resources. However, a striking feature of the data is that the success of individual development projects varies much more within countries than it does between countries. The authors assemble a large set of project-level "micro" correlates of project outcomes in an effort to explain some of this within-country variation. They find that measures of project size, the extent of project supervision, and evaluation lags are all significantly correlated with project outcomes, as are early-warning indicators that flag problematic projects during the implementation stage. They also find that measures of World Bank project task manager quality matter significantly for the ultimate outcome of projects. They discuss the implications of these findings for donor policies aimed at aid effectiveness.

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