Employment Multipliers over the Business Cycle
This paper estimates dynamic employment multipliers in a U.S. county during 1998-2015. On average, one exogenous tradable job gain creates 1.1 jobs in the rest of the county economy in the same year, but is offset by losses of 0.23 job one year later and 0.32 job two years later. The multiplier is modest during the 2002-2007 boom and is large during the Great Recession. It is smaller in the initial years of the Recovery but is larger in the latter years. Uncertainty and credit constraints are two possible hindrances to the propagation of job gains during the Recovery.
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017-06
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| Subjects: | EMPLOYMENT, BUSINESS CYCLES, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/186281497883831608/Employment-multipliers-over-the-business-cycle https://hdl.handle.net/10986/27306 |
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| Summary: | This paper estimates dynamic employment
multipliers in a U.S. county during 1998-2015. On average,
one exogenous tradable job gain creates 1.1 jobs in the rest
of the county economy in the same year, but is offset by
losses of 0.23 job one year later and 0.32 job two years
later. The multiplier is modest during the 2002-2007 boom
and is large during the Great Recession. It is smaller in
the initial years of the Recovery but is larger in the
latter years. Uncertainty and credit constraints are two
possible hindrances to the propagation of job gains during
the Recovery. |
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