The Role of Emerging-Market Economy Demand during the Post-2005 Boom
The post-2005 commodity price boom took place when most emerging-market economies (EMs) were experiencing strong and sustained economic growth, prompting numerous commentators to argue that a structural shift in the demand for commodities by emerging countries had occurred. Indeed, the size of China and India alone, which together account for 37 percent of the world's population, implies that even minor changes in their pattern of demand growth may have a measurable impact on world commodity prices. This note examines the role of demand by EMs for both extractive and food commodities. It concludes that a structural shift in metal demand has taken place, driven, for the most part, by China. Energy prices have also been influenced by EM demand. However, the role of demand for food commodities from EMs has been much less than what much of the literature argues.
Summary: | The post-2005 commodity price boom took
place when most emerging-market economies (EMs) were
experiencing strong and sustained economic growth, prompting
numerous commentators to argue that a structural shift in
the demand for commodities by emerging countries had
occurred. Indeed, the size of China and India alone, which
together account for 37 percent of the world's
population, implies that even minor changes in their pattern
of demand growth may have a measurable impact on world
commodity prices. This note examines the role of demand by
EMs for both extractive and food commodities. It concludes
that a structural shift in metal demand has taken place,
driven, for the most part, by China. Energy prices have also
been influenced by EM demand. However, the role of demand
for food commodities from EMs has been much less than what
much of the literature argues. |
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