Physical Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources
Despite the well-recognized role of water in transmitting climate impacts to some of the growth drivers of the economy, the water sector has been largely ignored in climate change deliberations. The impacts are projected to vary regionally, and are likely to include changes in average hydroclimate patterns (precipitation, surface runoff, and stream flow), as well as increases in the probability of extreme events. Climate shocks are likely to impose higher costs than gradual changes in climate averages. Prudent management of water resources will be pivotal in addressing the climate challenge—both for adapting to the effects of climate change as well as for meeting global greenhouse gas mitigation goals. The precise consequences of climate change on the hydrological cycle are uncertain, which makes adaptation especially challenging. Uncertainty regarding impacts is partly a consequence of the limitations of climate models. Despite improvements in climate science, the Global Circulation Models developed to project climate futures generate a wide range of projections that often disagree on both the direction and magnitude of precipitation changes. Furthermore, these models have not been designed to predict changes in the hydrological cycle and lack the precision required for planning and managing water resources. In addition to this, changes in the hydrological cycle imply that future water systems may not resemble the past (non-stationarity), so historic trends as used in engineering designs, no longer serve as a reliable guide for assessing and managing future risks. This study presents an investigation of the impacts of climate change on water resources throughout the world, and specific effects on water dependent sectors of the economy such as urban, energy, and agriculture. The results can be used to illustrate the centrality of water in achieving global climate change goals.
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017-02-08
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| Subjects: | WATER RESOURCES, INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT, WATER SUPPLY, CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, WATER SECURITY, AGRICULTURE, IRRIGATION, water scarcity, water flow, climate change mitigation, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/137141486625149687/Physical-impacts-of-climate-change-on-water-resources http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26028 |
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| Summary: | Despite the well-recognized role of
water in transmitting climate impacts to some of the growth
drivers of the economy, the water sector has been largely
ignored in climate change deliberations. The impacts are
projected to vary regionally, and are likely to include
changes in average hydroclimate patterns (precipitation,
surface runoff, and stream flow), as well as increases in
the probability of extreme events. Climate shocks are
likely to impose higher costs than gradual changes in
climate averages. Prudent management of water resources will
be pivotal in addressing the climate challenge—both for
adapting to the effects of climate change as well as for
meeting global greenhouse gas mitigation goals. The precise
consequences of climate change on the hydrological cycle are
uncertain, which makes adaptation especially challenging.
Uncertainty regarding impacts is partly a consequence of the
limitations of climate models. Despite improvements in
climate science, the Global Circulation Models developed to
project climate futures generate a wide range of projections
that often disagree on both the direction and magnitude of
precipitation changes. Furthermore, these models have not
been designed to predict changes in the hydrological cycle
and lack the precision required for planning and managing
water resources. In addition to this, changes in the
hydrological cycle imply that future water systems may not
resemble the past (non-stationarity), so historic trends as
used in engineering designs, no longer serve as a reliable
guide for assessing and managing future risks. This study
presents an investigation of the impacts of climate change
on water resources throughout the world, and specific
effects on water dependent sectors of the economy such as
urban, energy, and agriculture. The results can be used to
illustrate the centrality of water in achieving global
climate change goals. |
|---|