Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2016 : Towards Reintegration
The economy-wide positive impact of the JCPOA since January 2016 is proving to be slower than expected. Iran’s economy moderated to an estimated annual growth rate of 0.6 percent in 2015 ahead of the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Following the removal of nuclear-related sanctions in January 2016, the growth rate is projected to average 4.5 percent in 2016–2018, up from a 0.5 percent average in 2013–2015. Thisprojected recovery which will rely on favorable external factors, is expected to be driven by (i) a significant increase in energy sector activity thanks to the removal of sanctions; (ii) increased inflows of foreigninvestment; and (iii) lower trade and financing costs that will help the non-oil sector contribute significantlyto overall growth and job creation. However, there are significant downsiderisks to Iran’s medium-term outlook. While the January 2016 lifting of the nuclear-related sanctions is expected to reveal the dynamism of the Iranian economy, a large structural reform agenda remains key in moving towards the ambitious growth target under the 6th five year development plan. The plan envisages the implementation of reforms of state-owned enterprises, the financial and banking sector, and a greater emphasis on the allocation and management of oil revenues to productive investments among the main priorities of the government during the five-year period.
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| Format: | Report biblioteca |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016-09
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| Subjects: | economic growth, economic outlook, unemployment, labor market, public finance, monetary policy, fiscal trends, external position, poverty trends, shared prosperity, inequality, poverty, air pollution, inflation, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/741891483046725613/Iran-economic-monitor-towards-reintegration http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25865 |
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| Summary: | The economy-wide positive impact of the
JCPOA since January 2016 is proving to be slower than
expected. Iran’s economy moderated to an estimated annual
growth rate of 0.6 percent in 2015 ahead of the
implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA). Following the removal of nuclear-related sanctions
in January 2016, the growth rate is projected to average 4.5
percent in 2016–2018, up from a 0.5 percent average in
2013–2015. Thisprojected recovery which will rely on
favorable external factors, is expected to be driven by (i)
a significant increase in energy sector activity thanks to
the removal of sanctions; (ii) increased inflows of
foreigninvestment; and (iii) lower trade and financing costs
that will help the non-oil sector contribute significantlyto
overall growth and job creation. However, there are
significant downsiderisks to Iran’s medium-term outlook.
While the January 2016 lifting of the nuclear-related
sanctions is expected to reveal the dynamism of the Iranian
economy, a large structural reform agenda remains key in
moving towards the ambitious growth target under the 6th
five year development plan. The plan envisages the
implementation of reforms of state-owned enterprises, the
financial and banking sector, and a greater emphasis on the
allocation and management of oil revenues to productive
investments among the main priorities of the government
during the five-year period. |
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