Implications of Climate Change for Water Resources Development in the Ganges Basin

This paper presents the first basin-wide assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken as part of the World Bank’s Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment. A series of modeling efforts, downscaling of climate projections, water balance calculations, hydrological simulation and economic optimization, inform the assessment. The authors find that projections of precipitation across the basin, obtained from 16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-recognized General Circulation Models are highly variable, and lead to considerable differences in predictions of mean flows in the main stem of the Ganges and its tributaries. Despite uncertainties in predicted future flows, they are not, however, outside the range of natural variability in this basin, except perhaps at the tributary or sub-catchment levels. The authors also find that the hydropower potential associated with a set of 23 large dams in Nepal remains high across climate models, largely because annual flow in the tributary rivers greatly exceeds the storage capacities of these projects even in dry scenarios. The additional storage and smoothing of flows provided by these infrastructures translates into enhanced water availability in the dry season, but the relative value of this water for the purposes of irrigation in the Gangetic plain, and for low flow augmentation to Bangladesh under climate change, is unclear.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Jeuland, Marc, Harshadeep, Nagaraja, Escurra, Jorge, Blackmore, Don, Sadoff, Claudia
Format:	Journal Article biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	IWA Publishing 2013-03
Subjects:	FLOODING, WATER ALLOCATION, COVERING, POWER PLANTS, FLOW, TEMPERATURE, HYDROLOGIC CYCLE, WATER YIELD, SNOW, DAMS, CONVERGENCE, WATER SYSTEMS, HYDROLOGY, AQUIFER, CLEAN ENERGY, WATER SUPPLY, WATER RESOURCE, EMISSIONS, CATCHMENTS, GROUNDWATER RECHARGE, RIVER BASINS, DOMESTIC WATER, RESERVOIRS, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES, SURFACE WATER, ATMOSPHERE, WATER ALLOCATIONS, HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, WATER TOWERS, CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY, WATER CONSUMPTION, WATER RESOURCES, WATER STORAGE, SALINE INTRUSION, WATER MANAGEMENT, LARGE DAMS, WATER REQUIREMENTS, MONSOONS, FLOODS, BASINS, CAPACITY, GLOBAL WARMING, WATER USE, WATER, RAINFALL, GLACIERS, WATER USE PATTERNS, AQUIFERS, GROUNDWATER IRRIGATION, IRRIGATORS, NATURAL RESOURCES, STREAMFLOW, PRECIPITATION, RUNOFF, ANNUAL RAINFALL, COASTAL AREAS, WATER SHORTAGE, GREENHOUSE GASES, LAND USE, TEMPERATURE CHANGE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, WATER MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, EMISSION, GREENHOUSE, STORAGE CAPACITY, ECOSYSTEM, CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT, HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL, LEAD, CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, WATER MANAGERS, DROUGHT, WATER USES, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, SNOW MELT, RIVER BASIN, CLIMATE DATA, HYDRODYNAMICS, WATER DEMAND, INTERNATIONAL WATERS, FLOOD DAMAGE, CLIMATE, WATER POLICY, FORESTS, CRYOSPHERE, CANALS, CATCHMENT, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION, RIVERS, SEDIMENT LOAD, SURFACE WATER IRRIGATION, WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT, INDIRECT RECHARGE, SURFACE RUNOFF, ENERGY PRODUCTION, HYDROLOGIC REGIME, WATER AVAILABILITY, FLOW AUGMENTATION, COASTS, IRRIGATION SYSTEMS, GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL, ENGINEERING, IRRIGATION, GROUNDWATER, METERS, LESS, RAIN, SEAWATER, CRU, EMISSIONS TRENDS, GCM, GROUNDWATER RESOURCES, WATER CYCLE, GASES, CLIMATOLOGY, EVAPORATION, RIVER DELTAS, WATERS, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY, EMISSIONS SCENARIO, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, AVAILABLE WATER, MUNICIPAL WATER, BENEFITS, ENERGY, REMOTE SENSING,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26048528/implications-climate-change-water-resources-development-ganges-basin https://hdl.handle.net/10986/24122
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