Seasonality in Local Food Markets and Consumption

This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods. It uses 19 years of monthly food prices from 20 markets and three years of nationally representative household panel surveys from Tanzania. Trigonometric specifications are introduced to measure the seasonal gap. When samples are short and seasonality is poorly defined, they produce less upward bias than the common dummy variable approach. On average, the seasonal gap for maize prices is estimated to be 27 percent; it is 15 percent for rice. In both cases it is two and a half to three times higher than in the international reference market. Food price seasonality is not a major contributor to food price volatility, but it does translate into seasonal variation in caloric intake of about 10 percent among poor urban households and rural net food sellers. Rural net food-buying households appear able to smooth their consumption. The disappearance of seasonality from Africas development debate seems premature.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Kaminski, Jonathan, Christiaensen, Luc, Gilbert, Christopher L.
Format:	Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2015-12
Subjects:	JOBS, CREDIT MARKETS, STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION, CAPITAL MARKETS, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, SEASONAL FACTOR, SUBSISTENCE, SUBSTITUTION, PRICE STABILIZATION, STOCK, SALES, FOOD CONSUMPTION, CALORIC CONSUMPTION, PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, RURAL POOR, DOMESTIC MARKET, CASSAVA, FOOD PRICES, FOOD POLICY, RURAL LIVELIHOODS, IFPRI, WORLD MARKETS, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, PRICE, CALORIC INTAKE, PRICE VOLATILITY, RETAIL, REGION, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE VARIATION, GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY, MAIZE, FOOD MARKETS, YAMS, FOOD EXPENDITURE, CEREALS, PRICE THEORY, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DATES, PRICE CHANGES, FOOD PRICE, COOKING, SURPLUS, PRODUCTS, SEASONAL FACTORS, FOOD PRODUCERS, MARKETING, MARKETS, POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, BARS, FOOD EXPENDITURES, FOOD AVAILABILITY, PRODUCT, FARMERS, FOOD PRODUCTS, CALORIE GAP, COMMODITY PRICE, POOR INFRASTRUCTURE, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD BUYERS, EXPENDITURE, COPING MECHANISMS, STAPLE FOODS, CONSUMPTION, SUBSTITUTE, REGIONAL MOVEMENTS, FOOD SECURITY, VOLATILITY, REGIONAL DUMMIES, VILLAGE‐LEVEL, VALUE, TUBERS, DEMAND, MEASUREMENT OF POVERTY, EXPENDITURES, AGRICULTURE, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, FOOD SHORTAGE, MALNUTRITION, SALE, AVERAGE PRICE, REGIONAL MARKETS, NUTRITION, MARKET, RETAIL PRICES, FOOD, HOUSEHOLD DISTRIBUTION, FOOD DEMAND, POLICY, GROUNDNUTS, RURAL AREAS, POTATOES, REGIONS, POST‐HARVEST, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, MONOPOLIES, POVERTY, BANANAS, SUPPLY, MARKET DEMAND, SWEET POTATOES, ABSOLUTE TERMS, MARKET POWER, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, WHEAT, WAREHOUSES, FOOD PRODUCT, MARKET INTEGRATION, RICE, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, PRICE VARIATIONS, FOODS, REMOTE AREAS, PULSES, FOOD STAPLES, REGIONAL CAPITALS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, PRICES, SPREAD, STORAGE,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/12/25700645/seasonality-local-food-markets-consumption-evidence-tanzania https://hdl.handle.net/10986/23620
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