The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development
The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).
Summary: | The impacts of climate change on poverty
depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on
demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of
hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic
development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries
shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across
countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from
these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty
and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is
pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector
analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health,
and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios.
By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant
impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and
reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South
Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude
of these impacts depends on development choices. In the
prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and
climate-informed development, climate change increases
poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The
increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122
million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the
poverty scenario). |
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