Harnessing the Global Recovery : A Tough Road Ahead

Compared with the past three years, 2014 seems hopeful and 2015 can be a turning point for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. After a slowdown in 2013, recovery in high income economies is expected to boost global growth to 3.2 percent in 2014, an increase of 0.8 percent from 2013. Global output is to improve further in 2015 with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.4 percent. In addition to growth expansion in the United States, the United Kingdom, as well modest recovery in the Euro zone countries, global growth will continue to be driven by growth in developing countries, expected to be between 5.3 to 5.5 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively, led by China and India. Higher global demand is expected to boost MENA energy and manufactured exports in countries that have trade linkages with high-income countries. MENA countries share many structural problems that have prevented economies from moving to a higher, sustainable growth path. Fiscal spending in almost all MENA countries is dominated by a large civil-service wage bill and general subsidies. The global recovery remains fragile and downside risks, including continued low inflation in high-income economies, can weaken demand and delay economic recovery.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Mottaghi, Lili
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014-04
Subjects:	AVERAGE INCOMES, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGET DEFICITS, CASH TRANSFERS, COMMODITY, CREDIT GROWTH, DEBT, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING REGIONS, DIVERSIFICATION, DOMESTIC SECURITY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL FINANCING, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, EXTREME POVERTY, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FLOW OF FUNDS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOSTER COMPETITION, GINI COEFFICIENT, GLOBAL OUTPUT, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOLDING, INCOME, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INFLATION RATE, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS, INTANGIBLE, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKETS, LOW INFLATION, NATURAL CAPITAL, OIL EXPORTERS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY RATE, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR, RAPID GROWTH, REAL GDP, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, REGIONAL GROWTH, REGIONAL GROWTH RATES, REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT, REMITTANCES, RESERVES, RICH COUNTRIES, SAFEGUARDS, SAVINGS, SECTOR ACTIVITY, STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TRADING, TRANSITION COUNTRIES, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, VOLATILITY, WAGES, WEALTH,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/20144323/harnessing-global-recovery-tough-road-ahead https://hdl.handle.net/10986/20548
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