Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, July 2014

Geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Ukraine/Russia earlier in the year put upward pressure on oil prices during the second quarter. As tensions moderate, oil prices are expected to decline in 2015. Metal prices eased during the 2014Q2 due to supply response from earlier investments and weakening demand, especially by China. Weather concerns (often linked to likely El Niño) induced price increases in some grains earlier in the year but recently prices have weakened as supplies for the upcoming, 2014/15, season are deemed adequate to keep stocks at reasonable levels. Agricultural prices are expected to decline slightly in 2015. The key commodity price indices have been broadly stable during 2014Q2. Energy and agricultural prices increased 1 percent each, on geopolitical and weather-related concerns, respectively; while metal prices declined 1 percent on signs of Chinese demand weakness. The increase in beverage prices was driven by a rally in coffee prices due to dry weather in Brazil world's largest coffee supplier. Precious metal prices changed little while fertilizer prices declined 6.5 percent due to weakness in natural gas prices.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Baffes, John
Format:	Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank Group, Washington, DC 2014-07
Subjects:	AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL MARKETS, AGRICULTURAL PRICE, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, AGRICULTURE, AIR-DRY, ALUMINUM PRICES, AUCTIONS, AVAILABILITY, AVERAGE PRICE, BALANCE, BANANAS, BEEF MEAT, BIRDS, BORDER PRICE, BRANDS, CLIMATE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, COAL, COCOA PRICES, COFFEE PRICES, COLLATERAL, COMMERCE, COMMERCIALIZATION, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY EXCHANGE, COMMODITY MARKETS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, COPPER PRICES, COTTON, COTTON PRICES, CROP PRODUCTION, CROPS, CRUDE OIL, CRUDE OIL CONSUMPTION, CRUDE OIL PRICE, CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION, CRUDE OIL SUPPLIES, CRUDE PRODUCTION, CUTTING, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEFICIT REGIONS, DEMAND GROWTH, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DIVIDEND, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICES, DRILLING, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EFFICIENCY GAINS, EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMISSIONS, ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION, ENERGY INPUT, ENERGY PRICE, ENERGY PRICES, ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS, EXPORT, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL MARKETS, EXTERNAL PRICE, FAIR, FARMERS, FATS, FEDERAL RESERVE, FEED, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD SECURITY, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, FUEL, FUEL PRICES, FUTURES, FUTURES CONTRACT, GAS FIELDS, GAS PIPELINES, GAS PRODUCTION, GAS SUPPLIES, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL MARKET, GLOBAL MARKETS, GOLD PRICES, GRAIN, GRAIN PRICES, GROWTH RATES, HEDGE FUND, HIGH ENERGY INTENSITY, HOME COUNTRIES, IMPORTS, INCOME, INDEXATION, INDIVIDUAL MARKETS, INFLATION, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, INTEREST RATES, INVENTORIES, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT VEHICLES, LIVESTOCK, LNG, LOCAL CURRENCIES, MARKET ANALYSIS, MARKET INTEGRATION, MARKET VOLATILITY, MEAT, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL GAS MARKET, NATURAL GAS PRICES, OIL, OIL COMPANIES, OIL DEMAND, OIL EXPORTS, OIL FIELD, OIL INFRASTRUCTURE, OIL MARKETS, OIL OUTPUT, OIL PRICES, OIL SUPPLY, OILS, PIPELINE, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POTASSIUM, PREMIUM, PRICE ADJUSTMENT, PRICE ADJUSTMENTS, PRICE BEHAVIOR, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, PRICE FORECAST, PRICE FORECASTS, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE INDEXES, PRICE INDICES, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRICE OF OIL, PRICE RISKS, PRICE SERIES, PRICE SPIKES, PRICE VOLATILITY, RAPID EXPANSION, RAW MATERIAL, RAW MATERIALS, REFINED PRODUCTS, REGIONAL TRADE, RICE PRICES, RISK PREMIUM, SALE, SETTLEMENT PRICE, SOYBEAN MEAL, SOYBEAN OIL, SPOT PRICE, SPREAD, STOCKS, SUBSTITUTION, SUGAR, SULFUR, SUPPLIER, SUPPLIERS, SUPPLY SIDE, SURPLUS, TRANSACTION, TRANSACTION COSTS, TROPICAL TIMBER, VEHICLES, WAREHOUSE, WHOLESALE PRICE, WHOLESALE PRICES, WORLD MARKET, WORLD MARKETS, WORLD PRICE, WORLD PRICES,
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20401
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