Achieving the MDGs in Yemen : An Assessment

Once the current political crisis in Yemen has been resolved, it will be ever more urgent to speed up progress, including Millennium Development Goal (MDG) achievements. Drawing on simulations with the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a model for strategy analysis, and a linked microsimulation model, this paper addresses Yemen's MDG challenges. A first simulation set considers scaled-up government actions with the aim of fully achieving the 2015 international MDG targets with required additional financing from foreign or domestic sources. The main finding is sobering but not surprising: given the required expansion of MDG -- related services, on-time achievement of key MDG targets does not appear to have been a realistic objective even if the government, hypothetically, would have expanded services with grant aid financing starting from 2005; macroeconomic stability, government efficiency, and the production of tradables would all have suffered due to the size of spending and aid increases as well as the resulting real exchange rate appreciation. The results suggest that countries, instead of relying on international targets, should set MDG targets grounded in their own reality. In light of these results, the authors designed a second simulation set that is focused on the remaining period up to 2015, and on what may be feasible once the current conflict has been settled. The simulations introduce moderate increases in foreign aid or government allocative efficiency. The government uses the resulting fiscal space for spending and service expansion in infrastructure and human development without losses in productive efficiency. The results suggest that, under these conditions, substantial improvements could still be achieved.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Al-Batuly, Abdulmajeed, Al-Hawri, Mohamed, Cicowiez, Martin, Lofgren, Hans, Pournik, Mohammad
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012-03
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING, ADULT LITERACY, ADVERSE EFFECTS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURE, ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK POLICY, BASE YEAR, BASIC EDUCATION, BASIC SANITATION, BASIC SOCIAL SERVICES, BENCHMARK, BUDGET DEFICITS, BULLETIN, CAPITAL ACCOUNTS, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL STOCKS, CENTRAL BANK, CIVIL WAR, COMPETITIVENESS, DEBT, DEBT REDUCTION, DEBT STOCK, DEBTS, DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, DERIVATIVES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DISPOSABLE INCOME, DOMESTIC BORROWING, DOMESTIC DEBT, DOMESTIC RESOURCE MOBILIZATION, DRINKING WATER, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC SITUATION, ECONOMIC SYSTEMS, ECONOMIC TRENDS, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELASTICITY, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, EQUIPMENT, EXCHANGE RATE REGIME, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED INVESTMENT, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN DEBT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN FINANCING, FOREIGN INTEREST, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN LOANS, FOREIGN TRADE, GDP, GENDER DISPARITIES, GENDER GAP, GENDER GAP IN PRIMARY, GINI COEFFICIENT, GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS, GOVERNMENT ACTIONS, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT FINANCE, GOVERNMENT FINANCING, GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT, GOVERNMENT POLICY, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROUNDWATER, GROWTH RATE, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH CARE SERVICES, HEALTH EDUCATION, HEALTH SECTOR, HEALTH SERVICES, HIGH POPULATION GROWTH, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INCOME LEVEL, INCOME LEVELS, INFANT, INFANT MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY RATES, INFLATION RATE, INFLOW OF REMITTANCES, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT SPENDING, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LENDERS, LEVEL OF EDUCATION, LIVE BIRTHS, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET CONSTRAINTS, MARKET STRUCTURE, MATERNAL MORTALITY, MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, MORTALITY RATE, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEONATAL MORTALITY, NUMBER OF WORKERS, NURSES, OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, OIL PRICES, OIL RESERVES, OPPORTUNITY COST, OUTPUT, OUTPUTS, PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POINT OF DEPARTURE, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL TURMOIL, POPULATION GROWTH, POPULATION GROWTH RATE, POPULATION GROWTH RATES, PRESS RELEASE, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIMARY SCHOOLING, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRIVATE CAPITAL STOCK, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PROGRESS, PUBLIC AWARENESS, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC SERVICES, PUBLIC SPENDING, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID EXPANSION, RAPID GROWTH, RATES OF INFLATION, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REPRODUCTIVE AGE, RESERVES, RESOURCE USE, RESPECT, RETURN, RISING CONSUMPTION, RURAL AREAS, SAFE DRINKING WATER, SAFE WATER, SANITATION, SAVINGS, SCHOOL ENROLMENT, SECONDARY EDUCATION, SECURITY SITUATION, SERVICE DELIVERY, SERVICE PROVISION, SKILL LEVEL, SKILLED WORKERS, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL POLICIES, SOCIAL SECTORS, SOCIAL STRUCTURE, STOCKS, SUPPLY CURVES, TARIFF BARRIERS, TAX, TAX COLLECTION, TAX RATES, TAXATION, TERTIARY EDUCATION, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TREASURY, TRUST FUND, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, URBAN AREAS, USE OF RESOURCES, WAGES, WATER RESOURCES,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/03/15974884/achieving-mdgs-yemen-assessment https://hdl.handle.net/10986/19868
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