High Food Prices, Latin American and the Caribbean Responses to a New Normal

Yet the current situation differs from 2007-2008 in critical respects. First, recent international price increases are more widespread across agricultural commodities than in 2008, when price spikes were led by few grains such as wheat and rice. Second, natural resources are affecting food production: land and water constraints are more binding than in the past and weather induced production shortfalls are more of a factor now than it was 2008. Climate change also adds to this uncertainty, particularly since a larger share of grain exports are being produced in areas more exposed to climate variability. Third, long term structural changes in the markets are more clearly a major factor this time, as demand for feed and income-elastic foods under sustained and widespread income growth in emerging countries is increasing steadily. Fourth, the global stocks/use ratio for major cereals, which used to hover in the range of 30-35 percent in the 1980s and 1990s, has been around 20 percent after 2003 due largely to long-term policy changes in high-income countries; and stocks of some critical players are now at all-time lows. Global markets are currently experiencing the second sharp spike in food prices in the last four years. While no one has a crystal ball to predict with confidence the future prices of food products, there are good reasons to believe that structural factors affecting both supply and demand, discussed in this report, have recently evolved in ways that will increase the average levels and volatility of prices above those of recent decades. Ensuring that the world's populations, and particularly vulnerable groups, are adequately fed is one of the most important contributions of the World Bank to the global public good's agenda. This report describes how the current situation is affecting countries in the Latin America and Caribbean region, including the impact on different groups within countries, and proposes strategies to best assist our client countries in responding.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: World Bank
Format: Working Paper biblioteca
Language:English
en_US
Published: Washington, DC 2014-01
Subjects:ACCESS TO FOOD, ACCESSIBILITY, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL INNOVATION, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL POLICIES, AGRICULTURAL POLICY, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH, AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH EXPENDITURES, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURAL SECTORS, AGRICULTURAL SUPPORT, AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY, AGRICULTURE, ANDEAN REGION, AUCTION, AVERAGE TRAVEL SPEEDS, BANANAS, BASIC FOOD BASKET, BEEF, BORDER CROSSINGS, BOTTLENECKS, CALORIC INTAKE, CARIBBEAN REGION, CASH TRANSFER PROGRAMS, CASH TRANSFERS, CEREALS, CHRONIC POVERTY, CHRONICALLY POOR, CLIMATE CHANGE, COLD CHAIN, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMPTION BASKET, CONSUMPTION DATA, COPING BEHAVIORS, COPING MECHANISMS, CORN, COST-EFFECTIVENESS, CROP VARIETIES, CROP YIELDS, CROSSING, DECLINE IN POVERTY, DEVELOPING REGIONS, DIETARY DIVERSITY, DIRECT BENEFICIARIES, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICES, DOMESTIC TRANSPORT, DRIVERS, DRIVING, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EXPENDITURE, EXTREME POVERTY, EXTREME POVERTY LINE, FAIR, FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN, FARMERS, FARMLAND, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, FOOD DISTRIBUTION, FOOD FIT FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION, FOOD FOR WORK, FOOD MARKETS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCERS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD PRODUCTS, FOOD RESERVES, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD TRANSPORT, FOODS, FOODSTUFF, FREIGHT, FREIGHT COSTS, FRUITS, FUEL, FUEL PRICE, FUEL PRICES, FUELS, GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY, GRAINS, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, HIGH TRANSPORT, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HYDROCARBONS, IFPRI, INCOME, INCOME GAINS, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME ON FOOD, INCOME POVERTY, INCOME TAX, INEQUALITY, INFLATION, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INVENTORIES, LABOR MARKET, LACK OF INFRASTRUCTURE, LAND AVAILABILITY, LAND USE, MAIZE, MALNUTRITION, MARKET DEVELOPMENTS, MARKET INTEGRATION, MARKET SHARE, MARKETPLACE, MICRONUTRIENT DEFICIENCIES, MILK, MILLS, MODES OF TRANSPORT, NUTRITION, ORANGES, PACKING, PALM OIL, PIG MEAT, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POOR FAMILIES, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR PEOPLE, POOR PERSON, POPULATION DENSITY, PORT INFRASTRUCTURE, PORT OF ENTRY, POST-HARVEST INFRASTRUCTURE, POST-HARVEST LOSSES, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY INDEX, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE LEVELS, PRICE RISK, PRICE STABILITY, PRICE SUPPORTS, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGY, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC PARTNERSHIPS, PUBLIC SPENDING, PURCHASING, RAIL, REGIONAL DISPARITIES, REGIONAL FOOD, REGIONAL IMPACTS, REGIONAL INTEGRATION, REGIONAL LEVEL, RICE, RISK MANAGEMENT, ROAD, ROAD CONDITIONS, ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE, ROADS, ROUTE, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, RURAL POOR, RURAL POVERTY, RURAL PUBLIC, SAFETY, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NET PROGRAMS, SAFETY NET SYSTEMS, SAFETY NETS, SANITATION, SCHOOL FEEDING, SCHOOLING, SHORT-SEA SHIPPING, SILAGE, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL IMPACTS, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOYBEAN, SOYBEANS, STOCKS, STORAGE FACILITIES, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUB-REGION, SUB-REGIONS, SUBSISTENCE, SUBSTITUTE, SUGAR, SUPPLIER, SUPPLY CHAIN, SUPPLY CHAINS, TARGETING, TAX, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TRANSFER PROGRAMS, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPORT COSTS, TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT SERVICE, TRANSPORT SERVICE PROVIDERS, TRANSPORTATION, TRANSPORTATION COSTS, TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE, TRAVEL TIME, TRIP, TRUCKS, URBANIZED REGION, VEGETABLES, VEHICLES, VOLATILITY, VULNERABLE GROUPS, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS, WEANING FOODS, WELFARE MONITORING, WHEAT, WHEAT FLOUR,
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19459842/high-food-prices-lac-responses-new-normal
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18639
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Summary:Yet the current situation differs from 2007-2008 in critical respects. First, recent international price increases are more widespread across agricultural commodities than in 2008, when price spikes were led by few grains such as wheat and rice. Second, natural resources are affecting food production: land and water constraints are more binding than in the past and weather induced production shortfalls are more of a factor now than it was 2008. Climate change also adds to this uncertainty, particularly since a larger share of grain exports are being produced in areas more exposed to climate variability. Third, long term structural changes in the markets are more clearly a major factor this time, as demand for feed and income-elastic foods under sustained and widespread income growth in emerging countries is increasing steadily. Fourth, the global stocks/use ratio for major cereals, which used to hover in the range of 30-35 percent in the 1980s and 1990s, has been around 20 percent after 2003 due largely to long-term policy changes in high-income countries; and stocks of some critical players are now at all-time lows. Global markets are currently experiencing the second sharp spike in food prices in the last four years. While no one has a crystal ball to predict with confidence the future prices of food products, there are good reasons to believe that structural factors affecting both supply and demand, discussed in this report, have recently evolved in ways that will increase the average levels and volatility of prices above those of recent decades. Ensuring that the world's populations, and particularly vulnerable groups, are adequately fed is one of the most important contributions of the World Bank to the global public good's agenda. This report describes how the current situation is affecting countries in the Latin America and Caribbean region, including the impact on different groups within countries, and proposes strategies to best assist our client countries in responding.