Vulnerability to Oil Price Increases : A Decomposition Analysis of 161 Countries

Vulnerability to Oil Price Increases : A Decomposition Analysis of 161 Countries

This paper examines the levels of and changes in vulnerability to oil price increases between 1996 and 2006 in 161 countries for which data are available. Vulnerability defined here as the ratio of the value of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP) rises if oil consumption increases and oil production decreases per unit of GDP. By comparing the level of vulnerability of different economies at a point in time, those that are particularly vulnerable to oil price increases can be highlighted. This enables consideration of the factors (variables) that help determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Over time economies change in ways that may make them more vulnerable to oil price increases or less so, and the change in vulnerability will be related to changes in the underlying variables. The analysis this paper uses is a starting point for linking these factors. The study also examined changes in vulnerability by subdividing the period under review into two sub-periods, 1996-2001 and 2001-6. The oil price increase during the first sub-period was small, and correspondingly the change in vulnerability was also limited. The change in vulnerability was greater during the second sub-period, which saw a 2.5-fold price increase in nominal U.S. dollars. This paper highlights the role of changes in the oil share of energy and of energy intensity, both of which can be influenced by government policies, and also by oil production, which, even though it is largely a function of geology, can also be affected by a country's upstream fiscal, contractual, and regulatory frameworks.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Bacon, Robert, Kojima, Masami
Language:English
en_US
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2008-08
Subjects:ADVERSE EFFECTS, AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES, AMOUNT OF OIL, APPROACH, AVAILABILITY, BALANCE, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BARREL, BIOMASS, CARBON, CARBON EMISSIONS, COAL, COMMERCIAL ENERGY, COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, COMMERCIAL ENERGY USE, COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS, CONSUMPTION OF OIL, COOKING, CRUDE OIL, CRUDE OIL PRICES, CRUDE OILS, CRUDE PRICE, CRUDE PRICES, DEMAND FOR OIL, DIESEL, DIESEL OIL, DOMESTIC OIL, DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION, DRILLING, DRILLING EQUIPMENT, DROP IN ENERGY INTENSITY, ELECTRICITY, ELECTRICITY GENERATION, ELECTRICITY SUPPLY, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION, ENERGY INTENSITY, ENERGY MANAGEMENT, ENERGY RESEARCH, ENERGY SECURITY, ENERGY USE, EXPORT CRUDES, EXTRACTION, EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FUEL, FUEL OIL, FUEL OIL PRICES, FUEL SOURCES, FUEL SUBSTITUTION, FUEL SWITCHING, FUEL USE, FUELS, GAS, GAS PIPELINE, GASOLINE, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, GRID ELECTRICITY, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, HIGH OIL PRICES, HIGHER OIL PRICES, IMPROVING ENERGY EFFICIENCY, INCOME, INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, INTERNATIONAL OIL PRICES, KEROSENE, LIGHTING, LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM GAS, LNG, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS, NET OIL, NET OIL EXPORTS, OIL, OIL CONSUMPTION, OIL DEMAND, OIL ENERGY, OIL EXPORTER, OIL EXPORTERS, OIL EXPORTS, OIL IMPORT, OIL IMPORT BILL, OIL IMPORTER, OIL IMPORTERS, OIL IMPORTING, OIL IMPORTS, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICE CHANGES, OIL PRICE LEVEL, OIL PRICES, OIL PRODUCER, OIL PRODUCERS, OIL PRODUCING, OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES, OIL PRODUCTION, OIL PRODUCTS, OIL SHOCKS, OIL USE, OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES, OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES, OILS, ORGANIZATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, PEAK OIL, PER CAPITA INCOME, PETROCHEMICALS, PETROLEUM, PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, PETROLEUM GAS, PETROLEUM PRODUCTS, PIPELINE, PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE, POWER, POWER SECTOR, PRICE ELASTICITY, PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, PRICE OF OIL, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRIMARY ENERGY, PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION, RECOVERABLE OIL, REFINED PRODUCTS, REFINERY, RENEWABLE ENERGY, RESIDUAL FUEL, RESIDUAL FUEL OIL, SOLID FUELS, SUBSTITUTE FUEL, SULFUR, TAX REVENUES, TOTAL CONSUMPTION, TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION, TRANSPORT COSTS, VEHICLES, WORLD ENERGY, WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL, WORLD OIL, WORLD OIL PRICES,
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/08/10532428/vulnerability-oil-price-increases-decomposition-analysis-161-countries
https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18402
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Summary:This paper examines the levels of and changes in vulnerability to oil price increases between 1996 and 2006 in 161 countries for which data are available. Vulnerability defined here as the ratio of the value of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP) rises if oil consumption increases and oil production decreases per unit of GDP. By comparing the level of vulnerability of different economies at a point in time, those that are particularly vulnerable to oil price increases can be highlighted. This enables consideration of the factors (variables) that help determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Over time economies change in ways that may make them more vulnerable to oil price increases or less so, and the change in vulnerability will be related to changes in the underlying variables. The analysis this paper uses is a starting point for linking these factors. The study also examined changes in vulnerability by subdividing the period under review into two sub-periods, 1996-2001 and 2001-6. The oil price increase during the first sub-period was small, and correspondingly the change in vulnerability was also limited. The change in vulnerability was greater during the second sub-period, which saw a 2.5-fold price increase in nominal U.S. dollars. This paper highlights the role of changes in the oil share of energy and of energy intensity, both of which can be influenced by government policies, and also by oil production, which, even though it is largely a function of geology, can also be affected by a country's upstream fiscal, contractual, and regulatory frameworks.

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