Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisis

The 2001/02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay's gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in just two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably lower, inequality would not change significantly, and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). Young individuals, female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, and those who do not have complete secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Cabanillas, Oscar Barriga, Lugo, Maria Ana, Nielsen, Hannah, Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos, Zanetti, Maria Pia
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014-04
Subjects:	ADVERSE SELECTION, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, ANNUAL RATE, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE INCOME, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BUSINESS CYCLES, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CASH TRANSFER PROGRAMS, CASH TRANSFERS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRALIZATION, COMPETITIVENESS, DEBT, DECLINING INEQUALITY, DEMAND SIDE, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISTRIBUTION EFFECT, DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INEQUALITY, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC STUDIES, ESTIMATES OF POVERTY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE REGIME, EXPECTED RETURN, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, EXTREME POVERTY, EXTREME POVERTY LINE, EXTREME POVERTY LINES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FOOD BASKET, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FORECASTS, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH PROJECTIONS, GROWTH RATES, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH INSURANCE, HIGH INFLATION, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, HISTORICAL DATA, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL DATA, HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HOUSING SUBSIDIES, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME CHANGE, INCOME COMPONENTS, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME GROWTH RATE, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVEL, INCOME QUINTILE, INCOME SOURCES, INCOME TRANSFERS, INCREASED INEQUALITY, INCREASING SHARE, INEQUALITY, INFLATION RATE, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET POLICIES, LABOR MARKETS, LIQUIDITY, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES, MARKET INCOME, MEAN GROWTH, MEAN INCOME, MEAN INCOME GROWTH, MEDIAN INCOME, MEDIUM TERM, MIDDLE CLASS, MONETARY POLICY, MORAL HAZARD, NEGATIVE GROWTH, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NEGATIVE SHOCK, NEGATIVE SHOCKS, NET EXPORTS, OBSERVED EVOLUTION, OBSERVED GROWTH, OBSERVED POVERTY REDUCTION, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY DESIGN, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY OPTIONS, POLICY REFORM, POLICY RESEARCH, POOR, POOR PEOPLE, POOR POPULATION, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY DECLINES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY HEADCOUNT, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY MITIGATION, POVERTY POVERTY, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY SEVERITY, PRICE CHANGES, PRIMARY PRODUCTS, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PROPORTIONAL CHANGE, PUBLIC TRANSFERS, PUBLIC WORKS, REAL GDP, REAL GROWTH, REAL INCOME, RISK AVERSION, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, SAVINGS, SAVINGS ACCOUNTS, SECONDARY ENROLLMENT, SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE, SOCIAL POLICIES, SOCIAL POLICY, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL SAFETY, SOCIAL SAFETY NETS, SOCIAL SECURITY, TARGETING, TOTAL OUTPUT, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, URBAN AREAS, URBAN GROWTH,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19455955/uruguay-more-resilient-time-distributional-impacts-crisis-similar-200102-argentine-crisis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18334
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