What Do We Know about Growth Patterns in Pakistan?

This paper explores stylized facts of Pakistan's growth patterns. It identifies the short-lived predominant character of its increasingly scarce growth accelerations, the average volatility of the growth rate by international standards, the high but decreasing correlation between overall growth and agricultural growth, the long term decline of its growth (potential) rate to around 4.5 percent, well below the 6 percent rate of the 1960s or from the 7 percent rate required for absorbing the young labor force. It also explores the dramatically steady fall in productivity during the 2000s (measured by Total Factor Productivity) and, to a lesser extent, capital accumulation as main reasons of such decline. The paper analyzes the role factor accumulation plays in long-term labor reallocation across sectors, with industry stalling, agriculture still playing a major role that goes beyond its own contribution to GDP, and services playing an increasing role in creating employment, but on low productivity jobs. Growth acceleration is not assured and Pakistan will need to create more jobs moving from agriculture to industry and services in activities where productivity is higher, but to do this, curbing the factors that constraint growth overall and sectoral and Total Factor Productivity in particular will be essential.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	López-Cálix, J.R., Srinivasan, T.G., Waheed, Muhammad
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012-12
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK, ACCOUNTING MODELS, ACTUAL GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATES, BLOATED BUREAUCRACY, CAPITA GROWTH, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL STOCK, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSTANT RETURNS, CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, DATA QUALITY, DEBT, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC SAVING, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC REFORM, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC SURVEYS, ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, EMPIRICAL TERMS, EMPLOYMENT, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FACTOR ACCUMULATION, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FISCAL DEFICITS, FLUCTUATIONS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GDP, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH ACCELERATIONS, GROWTH ACCOUNTING, GROWTH DIAGNOSTICS, GROWTH INVESTMENT, GROWTH MODELS, GROWTH PATTERN, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH POTENTIAL, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH THEORY, GROWTH VOLATILITY, GROWTH WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT, HIGH GROWTH, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPERFECT COMPETITION, INCOME, INCOME LEVELS, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INFLATION RATES, INHERITANCE, INSURANCE, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, LABOR FORCE, LABOR INPUT, LABOR SUPPLY, LEVEL PLAYING FIELD, LONG RUN, LOW INFLATION, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMICS, MASS EDUCATION, NEGATIVE IMPACT, OUTPUT GROWTH, PAYMENT CRISIS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY STANCE, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL STABILITY, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE STABILITY, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRIVATIZATION, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RAPID GROWTH, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REMITTANCES, RURAL AREAS, RURAL POOR, SAVING RATE, SECTOR REFORMS, SHORTAGES, SIGNIFICANT FACTOR, STAGFLATION, STAGNATION, STANDARD DEVIATION, STATE OF TECHNOLOGY, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION, TECHNICAL CHANGE, TFP, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, UNSKILLED LABOR, VOLATILITY,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/12/19311561/know-growth-patterns-pakistan https://hdl.handle.net/10986/17875
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