South East Europe Six : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms

This note discusses the external environment, economic outlook, and key policy challenges for the six South East European Countries (SEE6)-Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia-as they seek to reignite economic recovery. After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group, SEE6 countries experienced a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. The rise in unemployment continues to threaten the social fabric. Credit recovery and fiscal consolidation are under threat. Nonperforming loans (NPLs)-thought to be stabilizing only a few months ago-are again on the rise. As a result, both within and outside the region, the environment has become much more difficult to navigate, and the policy trade-offs necessary to stabilize economies and reignite growth have become more difficult to make. To overcome these challenges, SEE6 countries need more intensive policy reform to reduce public debt and accelerate structural reforms, especially in fiscal consolidation and the financial sector, labor markets, and business environment. Additional external financing from International Financial Institutions (IFIs) for growth and jobs could prove effective, but only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Brief biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC 2013-01
Subjects:	ARREARS, BANK LOAN, BANK POLICY, BANKING SYSTEMS, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT, BUSINESS PRACTICES, BUSINESS REGULATIONS, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICES, CREDIT GROWTH, DEBT, DEPOSIT, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DOWNTURN, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC RECOVERY, ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS, EXTERNAL FINANCING, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTORS, FISCAL CONSOLIDATION, FISCAL DEFICITS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FOREIGN TRADE, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, INCOME, INSTRUMENT, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INVESTMENT BANK, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT CLIMATES, INVESTMENT RATES, JOB CREATION, JOBS, LABOR EFFICIENCY, LABOR FORCE, LABOR LEGISLATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE, LABOR MARKET REGULATION, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR REGULATIONS, LEGAL ENVIRONMENT, LOAN, LOAN QUALITY, LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT, MARKET DISTORTIONS, NONPERFORMING LOANS, OUTPUT, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRIVATIZATIONS, PUBLIC DEBT, REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT, REMITTANCE, RISING UNEMPLOYMENT, STOCKS, TAX, TAX TREATMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, WAGE DETERMINATION, WHOLESALE FUNDING, WORKERS, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17193906/south-east-europe-six-double-dip-recession-accelerated-reforms http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17047
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