From Double-Dip Recession to Fragile Recovery

After the double-dip recession, as a group the six South East European countries (SEE6)- Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia-are now making a fragile recovery. Last year the recession in the Eurozone had adverse impact on external demand and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in SEE6 and the severe winter and a summer drought crippled agriculture and affected trade, energy, and economic activity overall. However, the recovery in SEE6 is still tentative. In some countries nonperforming loans, sluggish credit recovery, continued deleveraging, and fiscal consolidation are exerting a drag and recovery in SEE6 is unlikely to accelerate as long as the Eurozone remains in recession. The SEE6 region is projected to grow 1.7 percent in 2013, signaling the end of the 2012 double-dip recession. Even though growth will in general be fragile, it will be on the upswing in all six countries. Kosovo again is expected to have the highest growth (3.1 percent), thanks to major public investments and a significant inflow of remittances. Against the backdrop of this tentative and fragile recovery, SEE6 countries should, as argued in the last report, intensify their efforts to reform structural areas. Fiscal consolidation efforts should become easier now that the output and revenue outlook is improving. The investment climate needs to be improved substantially, especially in the main areas of weaknesses: construction permits and licenses, barriers to entrepreneurship, and skills and infrastructure. One of the main worries in this nascent recovery is that SEE6 economies are plagued by high unemployment, especially youth unemployment, and they are not creating jobs fast enough to absorb new entrants into the labor force. Emigration continues as the current environment for doing business exacerbates the difficult labor market conditions.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC 2013-06-18
Subjects:	ACCESS TO INFORMATION, ACCESS TO JOBS, ACCOUNTABILITY, ACCOUNTING, ARREARS, ASSET OWNERSHIP, BANK DEPOSITS, BANK LENDING, BANK OF GREECE, BANKING INSTITUTIONS, BANKING REFORM, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SECTOR ASSETS, BANKS, BENEFICIARIES, BOND, BUSINESS ENTRY, BUSINESS STARTUP, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIOS, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CDS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANK BILLS, CENTRAL BANKS, CLAIMANTS, COMMERCIAL BANKS, CONSOLIDATION, CORRUPTION, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT POLICIES, CREDIT RATINGS, CREDIT SUPPORT, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT INSTRUMENTS, DEBT POLICIES, DEBTS, DEMAND-SIDE FACTORS, DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES, DEPOSIT, DEPOSIT INSURANCE, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISABLED, DISBURSEMENTS, DOMESTIC BANKS, DOMESTIC CURRENCIES, DOMESTIC CURRENCY, DOMESTIC DEBT, EARNINGS, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CLIMATE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY, EMERGING MARKETS, EMPLOYEE, EMPLOYERS, EMPLOYMENT, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES, ENTREPRENEUR, ENTREPRENEURS, ENTREPRENEURSHIP, ETHNIC MINORITIES, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL MIGRATION, EXTREME POVERTY, FACTORING, FEDERAL RESERVE, FINANCES, FINANCIAL CAPITAL, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORMS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICY, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN FINANCING, FORMAL WORKFORCE, GENDER, GENDER EQUALITY, GENDER GAPS, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GROUP OF FIRMS, HOME OWNERSHIP, HOST COUNTRY, HOUSEHOLDS, HOUSING, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, ILLITERACY, IMPEDIMENTS TO BUSINESS, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME TAX, INDEBTEDNESS, INEQUALITY, INFLATION, INFLATION RATES, INFORMAL WORKERS, INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS, INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS, INSURANCE AGENCIES, INSURANCE PROTECTION, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTEREST RATES ON LOANS, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL BONDS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT PLANS, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, ISSUANCE, JOB CREATION, JOB OPPORTUNITIES, LABOR COSTS, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR MOBILITY, LAWS, LEGAL SYSTEMS, LENDING CONDITIONS, LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE, LIMITED ACCESS, LIQUID ASSETS, LIQUIDITY, LIVING STANDARDS, LOAN, LOAN MARKETS, LOAN QUALITY, LOAN-TO-DEPOSIT RATIOS, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOCAL ECONOMY, LOCAL MARKET, LONG-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET DATA, MATURITIES, MATURITY, MICRO ENTERPRISES, MICRO-DATA, MIGRATION, MINIMUM WAGE, MINISTRIES OF FINANCE, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICY, NATIONAL BANK, NATIONAL BANKS, NEW BUSINESSES, NEW ENTRANTS, NEW MARKETS, NONPERFORMING LOANS, NPL, PERSONAL INCOME, POLICY DESIGN, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIOS, PRIVATE BANK, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATIZATION, PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENT, PRODUCTIVITY, PROFITABILITY, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC DEBT INSTRUMENTS, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC POLICIES, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, REAL EXCHANGE RATES, RECAPITALIZATION, RECEIPTS, RECESSION, REGIONAL BANKS, REGISTRATION REQUIREMENTS, REMITTANCES, RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES, RETURN, RETURN ON EQUITY, RETURNS, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NETS, SAVINGS, SELF-EMPLOYMENT, SHORT-TERM DEBT, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOVEREIGN DEBT, START-UPS, STATE GUARANTEES, STOCK MARKETS, STOCKS, SUBSIDIARY, T-BILLS, T-BONDS, TAX BURDEN, TAX BURDENS, TAX CREDITS, TAX SYSTEM, TAXATION, TRADE BALANCES, TRADING, UNEMPLOYMENT, URBAN AREAS, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, VULNERABLE GROUPS, WAGES, WELFARE DEPENDENCE,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17872878/double-dip-recession-fragile-recovery https://hdl.handle.net/10986/16559
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