Explaining the Last Consumption Boom-Bust Cycle in Ireland : The Role of News and Noise Shocks
The objective of the paper is to explain the last boom and bust in consumption in Ireland by the failure of consumers to correctly distinguish permanent changes in productivity from temporary changes. It uses a business cycle model, where agents update their beliefs about long-run productivity using information -that they receive continuously- about the future state of the economy. The analysis finds that a large and prolonged disconnect between consumption and long-run productivity occurred in the years leading to the economic crisis, which led to -- over-consumption -- for several quarters. A strong downward adjustment in 2008 followed when Irish consumers finally realized their mistake.
| Summary: | The objective of the paper is to explain
the last boom and bust in consumption in Ireland by the
failure of consumers to correctly distinguish permanent
changes in productivity from temporary changes. It uses a
business cycle model, where agents update their beliefs
about long-run productivity using information -that they
receive continuously- about the future state of the economy.
The analysis finds that a large and prolonged disconnect
between consumption and long-run productivity occurred in
the years leading to the economic crisis, which led to --
over-consumption -- for several quarters. A strong downward
adjustment in 2008 followed when Irish consumers finally
realized their mistake. |
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