PPML Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Aggregate Shocks
This paper introduces a computationally efficient method for estimating structural parameters of dynamic discrete choice models with large choice sets. The method is based on Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regression, which is widely used in the international trade and migration literature to estimate the gravity equation. Unlike most of the existing methods in the literature, it does not require strong parametric assumptions on agents' expectations, thus it can accommodate macroeconomic and policy shocks. The regression requires count data as opposed to choice probabilities; therefore it can handle sparse decision transition matrices caused by small sample sizes. As an example application, the paper estimates sectoral worker mobility in the United States.
Summary: | This paper introduces a computationally
efficient method for estimating structural parameters of
dynamic discrete choice models with large choice sets. The
method is based on Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML)
regression, which is widely used in the international trade
and migration literature to estimate the gravity equation.
Unlike most of the existing methods in the literature, it
does not require strong parametric assumptions on
agents' expectations, thus it can accommodate
macroeconomic and policy shocks. The regression requires
count data as opposed to choice probabilities; therefore it
can handle sparse decision transition matrices caused by
small sample sizes. As an example application, the paper
estimates sectoral worker mobility in the United States. |
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