Poverty in Mozambique : New Evidence from Recent Household Surveys

This paper has three primary objectives: (i) to investigate potential problems regarding Mozambique's most recent nationally representative household survey on poverty dynamics; (ii) to assess the robustness and reliability of official poverty statistics; and (iii) to provide alternative estimates of poverty and welfare indicators in light of the methodological and analytical issues raised in areas (i) and (ii). It is determined that at least two significant weaknesses affect the official poverty-rate estimates: measurement errors in consumption data and flaws in the methodology used to calculate poverty lines (the cost-of-basic-needs approach based on provincial food bundles with entropy correction). A number of observations appear to be affected by substantial measurement errors, which severely distort the official poverty statistics. The paper provides methods to correct the consumption distribution by recalculating poverty lines based on a single national food basket -- as opposed to the current estimates, which are based on province-specific food baskets. The revised poverty statistics differ considerably from the official estimates of poverty across provinces and are far more consistent with other poverty indicators. In addition, poverty appears to be highly concentrated in certain areas, with dramatically higher rates found in Central and Northern Mozambique, as well as in rural areas overall, compared with relatively low rates in Southern Mozambique and in the country's urban centers. These findings substantially contradict the government's official poverty figures, which appear to systematically overestimate poverty rates in Mozambique's Southern provinces and urban areas while simultaneously underestimating the prevalence of poverty in the country's Central and Northern regions and in rural areas nationwide.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Alfani, Federica, Azzarri, Carlo, d'Errico, Marco, Molini, Vasco
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012-10
Subjects:	ACCESS TO SERVICES, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURE, BANANAS, BREAD, CALORIC INTAKE, CALORIC REQUIREMENT, CALORIE INTAKE, CASSAVA, CENTRAL REGION, CENTRAL REGIONS, CEREALS, CHANGES IN POVERTY, CHESTNUTS, CONSUMER BASKETS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION BASKET, CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR, CONSUMPTION DISTRIBUTION, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA, CONSUMPTION LEVEL, CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, CONSUMPTION POVERTY, CORN, DAIRY, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT ISSUES, DIETARY DIVERSITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ESTIMATES OF POVERTY, EXPENDITURE DATA, FARMERS, FOOD BASKET, FOOD BASKETS, FOOD BUNDLE, FOOD BUNDLES, FOOD COMPONENTS, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CONSUMPTION DATA, FOOD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, FOOD EXPENDITURES, FOOD ITEMS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD POVERTY, FOOD POVERTY LINE, FOOD SHARE, FOODS, GA, GROUNDNUTS, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD HEAD AGE, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSING, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME RISES, INEQUALITY, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, LIVING STANDARDS, LIVING STANDARDS MEASUREMENT, MAIZE, MALNUTRITION, MEAT, NATIONAL POVERTY, NATIONAL POVERTY LINE, NATIONAL POVERTY RATE, NON-FOOD COMPONENT, NON-FOOD COMPONENTS, NON-FOOD CONSUMPTION, NON-FOOD ITEMS, NON-POOR HOUSEHOLDS, NONFOOD ITEMS, OFFICIAL POVERTY, OFFICIAL POVERTY RATE, PEANUTS, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, POLICY ANALYSIS, POLICY RESEARCH, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POTATOES, POVERTY ACROSS PROVINCES, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY ASSESSMENTS, POVERTY DYNAMICS, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY INDICATORS, POVERTY LEVELS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, POVERTY PROFILE, POVERTY RANKINGS, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY STATUS, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE VECTOR, PROTEIN, RANK CORRELATION, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, REGIONAL DIFFERENTIALS, REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION, REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, REGIONAL LEVEL, REGIONAL PATTERN, REGIONAL POVERTY, REGIONAL POVERTY LINES, REGIONAL PRICE, REGIONAL PRICE DIFFERENCES, REGIONAL PRODUCTIVITY, REGIONAL VARIATION, RELATIVE PRICES, RURAL, RURAL AREA, RURAL AREAS, RURAL COUNTERPARTS, RURAL POPULATION, RURAL POVERTY, RURAL POVERTY RATES, SANITATION, SCALAR ADJUSTMENT, SHEEP, SINGLE POVERTY, SINGLE POVERTY LINE, SPATIAL CORRELATION, SPATIAL DISPARITY, SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION, SPATIAL VARIATION, STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE, TOMATOES, UNEMPLOYMENT, URBAN AREA, URBAN AREAS, URBAN HOUSEHOLDS, UTILITY LEVEL, WELFARE DISTRIBUTION, WELFARE IMPROVEMENTS, WELFARE INDICATORS, WELFARE LEVELS,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/10/16793468/poverty-mozambique-new-evidence-recent-household-poverty-mozambique-new-evidence-recent-household https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12050
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