Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential

Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Guarín, José Rafael, Martre, Pierre, Ewert, Frank, Webber, Heidi, Dueri, Sibylle, Calderini, Daniel, Reynolds, Matthew, Molero, Gemma, Miralles, Daniel, Garcia, Guillermo, Slafer, Gustavo, Giunta, Francesco, Pequeño, Diego N. L., Stella, Tommaso, Ahmed, Mukhtar, Alderman, Phillip, Basso, Bruno, Berger, Andres G., Bindi, Marco, Bracho-Mujica, Gennady, Cammarano, Davide, Chen, Yi, Dumont, Benjamin, Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi, Fereres Castiel, Elías, Ferrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, Gao, Yujing, García Vila, Margarita, Gayler, Sebastian, Hochman, Zvi, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Hunt, Leslie A., Kersebaum, Kurt C., Nendel, Claas, Olesen, Jørgen E., Palosuo, Taru, Priesack, Eckart, Pullens, Johannes W.M., Rodríguez, Alfredo, Rötter, Reimund P., Ruiz Ramos, Margarita, Semenov, Mikhail A., Senapati, Nimai, Siebert, Stefan, Srivastava, Amit Kumar, Stöckle, Claudio, Supit, Iwan, Tao, Fulu, Thorburn, Peter, Wang, Enli, Weber, Tobias Karl David, Xiao, Liujun, Zhang, Zhao, Zhao, Chuang, Zhao, Jin, Zhao, Zhigan, Zhu, Yan, Asseng, Senthold
Other Authors:	International Wheat Yield Partnership
Format:	artículo biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	IOP Publishing 2022-12-01
Subjects:	Radiation use efficiency, Crop model ensemble, Yield increase, Wheat potential yield, Global food security,
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10261/286709 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002848 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002850 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85144616687
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!