Possibilities of short-term forecasting of the catch of the European sprat from the Black Sea stock off the western coast of Crimea
This research work presents the results of the analysis of the data collected during the multimethod monitoring of the European sprat fishing (the Black Sea stock) off the western coast of Crimea in July–September, 2019. The monitoring was aimed at identification of a relationship between the behavior of biological resources and their environmental conditions with the purpose of developing the methods of short-term forecasting of fishing efficiency. Graphical and correlation analysis of the daily data on vessel catches and sea surface temperature, as well as satellite altimetry data and characteristics of atmospheric transfers in the fishing area made it possible to suggest an environmental mechanism for the formation of commercial sprat aggregations in the investigated area. During its summer feeding in the coastal waters, sprat forms denser aggregations under the influence of synoptic anticyclonic vortices that develop near the shelf. Intensification of those aggregations is associated with an increase in the western atmospheric transfers in this region. Southern currents, uncharacteristic for the investigated area, and a decrease in the temperature of surface waters in the coastal zone indicate escalation of the stable impact of anticyclonic vortices on the coastal waters. The presence of statistically significant anticipatory relationships between average daily fishing pressure and abiotic factors holds a promise for the possibility of short-term forecasting of the sprat fishing efficiency off the western coast of Crimea in the summer season with the forecast interval equaling 1–7 days.
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Journal Contribution biblioteca |
| Language: | Russian |
| Published: |
2021
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| Subjects: | Fishing pressure, Abiotic factors, Anticyclonic vortices, Short-term forecast, Atmospheric transfers, Surface temperature, Температура поверхности моря, Краткосрочное прогнозирование, Промысел шпрота, Плотные скопления, Графический анализ, ASFA_2015::S::Sprat fisheries, ASFA_2015::A::Aggregations (organisms), ASFA_2015::C::Coastal waters, |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1834/41448 |
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| Summary: | This research work presents the results of the analysis of the data collected during the multimethod monitoring of the European sprat fishing (the Black Sea stock) off the western coast of Crimea in July–September, 2019. The monitoring was aimed at identification of a relationship between the behavior of biological resources and their environmental conditions with the purpose of developing the methods of short-term forecasting of fishing efficiency. Graphical and correlation analysis of the daily data on vessel catches and sea surface temperature, as well as satellite altimetry data and characteristics of atmospheric transfers in the fishing area made it possible to suggest an environmental mechanism for the formation of commercial sprat aggregations in the investigated area. During its summer feeding in the coastal waters, sprat forms denser aggregations under the influence of synoptic anticyclonic vortices that develop near the shelf. Intensification of those aggregations is associated with an increase in the western atmospheric transfers in this region. Southern currents, uncharacteristic for the investigated area, and a decrease in the temperature of surface waters in the coastal zone indicate escalation of the stable impact of anticyclonic vortices on the coastal waters. The presence of statistically significant anticipatory relationships between average daily fishing pressure and abiotic factors holds a promise for the possibility of short-term forecasting of the sprat fishing efficiency off the western coast of Crimea in the summer season with the forecast interval equaling 1–7 days. |
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