Amplified seasonality in western Europe in a warmer world

Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Goolaerts, Stijn, Wesselingh, Frank, Tindall, Julia, Ziegler, Martin, Kaskes, Pim, Bakker, Pepijn, Claeys, Philippe, de Winter, Niels J., Johnson, Andrew L.A., Goudsmit-Harzevoort, Barbara, Wichern, Nina, Huygen, Fynn, van Leeuwen, Sonja, Metcalfe, Brett
Format:	Dataset biblioteca
Published:	Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Subjects:	FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Molluscs, Paleoclimatology, Seasonal variations, Stable isotopes,
Online Access:	https://research.wur.nl/en/datasets/amplified-seasonality-in-western-europe-in-a-warmer-world
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