Forecasting Climatic Stress on Water Security for Different Emission Scenarios in Dhaka (Bangladesh)
Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is considered the most vulnerable megacity to climate change in Asia. Water security is an existing challenge that will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Hence, it is necessary to understand the climate stressors and how they will affect water security to ensure proper water management in the future. In this study, we considered assessing the city’s future scenarios for 2021 to 2100. We identified the climatic indicators that significantly impacted water security and projected them for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 to determine future climatic stress on water security for moderate and extreme climate change. First, statistical assessments were conducted to understand their impact on the city’s future of water security. Later, unbiased, standardized scoring was done to determine whether any significant difference could be estimated for the overall difference in the climate change scenarios. Our analysis found that although most of the indicators demonstrated higher risks in the future for RCP 8.5, the scores were not significantly different for the two scenarios. Overall, in both scenarios, Dhaka is shown to have a significant threat of water insecurity due to climatic stress. With each passing time, climate change will potentially pose more substantial negative impacts on the city’s water security. The insight provided by this study is essential and must be considered for the future water management of the city to ensure its livability and continued progress.
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article in monograph or in proceedings biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer
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| Subjects: | Climate change, Climate stressors, Dhaka, RCPs, Water security, |
| Online Access: | https://research.wur.nl/en/publications/forecasting-climatic-stress-on-water-security-for-different-emiss |
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