A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland

This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important.

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, Mendelsohn, Robert
Language:English
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2007-08
Subjects:AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURE, ARABLE LAND, CARBON, CARBON DIOXIDE, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE SENSITIVITY, CLIMATE SYSTEM, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE VARIATION, CLIMATE ZONES, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLOUDS, CO2, COMMODITIES, CROP, CROP PRODUCTION, CROPLAND, CROPPING, CROPPING PATTERNS, CROPS, DROUGHT, DRYLAND FARMERS, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ELASTICITIES, ELASTICITY, ELECTRICITY, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, FAO, FARM, FARMER, FARMERS, FARMING, FARMS, FERTILIZATION, FERTILIZER, FERTILIZERS, FIELD CROPS, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD SECURITY, FOREST, FORESTRY, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY, GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GASES, HUMID ZONE, HYDROLOGY, HYDROMETEOROLOGY, IFPRI, INCOME, INPUT PRICES, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, IPCC, IRRIGATION, LABOR COSTS, LAND ECONOMICS, LAND USE, MARKET PRICES, MODERN AGRICULTURE, NORTH AFRICA, PESTICIDE, PRECIPITATION, PRECIPITATION EVENTS, PRICE CHANGES, PRODUCTIVITY, RAIN, RAINFALL, RUNOFF, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, SAHARA, SAHEL, SATELLITES, SEEDS, SOCIAL COSTS, SOIL, SOIL TYPES, SOILS, SPACING, SPRING, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, SUGARCANE, SULFATE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATE REGIONS, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE CHANGES, TEMPERATURE DATA, TIMBER, TIMBER MARKETS, WAGE RATES, WATER RESOURCES, WELFARE EFFECTS, WORLD FOOD SUPPLY, YIELDS,
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/08/8044103/ricardian-analysis-impact-climate-change-african-cropland
https://hdl.handle.net/10986/7508
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