Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis : A New World Bank Tool Applied to Turkey

Fiscal sustainability analysis (FSA) is an important component of macroeconomic analysis. The authors review various quantitative approaches to FSA with a major objective to bring these approaches together and to present a user-friendly tool for FSA that reflects modern developments. They combine a dynamic simulations approach with a simplified version of the steady-state consistency approach. They also incorporate two different methods to deal with uncertainty: user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations. The tool goes further by evaluating the required fiscal adjustment as a consequence of the stochastic realizations of the exogenous variables. Furthermore, the fiscal sustainability tool incorporates an endogenous debt feedback rule for the primary surplus, a fiscal policy reaction function. Besides outlining the theoretical framework, the authors also present a case study for Turkey.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	van Wijnbergen, Sweder, Budina, Nina
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2007-03
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING, ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BANK DEPOSITS, BANK RECAPITALIZATION, BANKING SYSTEM, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARKING, BORROWING COSTS, BUDGET CONSTRAINT, BUDGET SURPLUS, BUDGETARY PROCESSES, BUSINESS CYCLES, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CENTRAL BANK, CONSOLIDATION, CURRENCY MISMATCHES, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, DEBT, DEBT BURDEN, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT DECOMPOSITION, DEBT DYNAMICS, DEBT MANAGEMENT, DEBT MANAGEMENT POLICIES, DEBT OVERHANG, DEBT POLICY, DEBT PROBLEM, DEBT RATIO, DEBT RATIOS, DEBT REDUCTION, DEBT STOCK, DEBT STOCKS, DEBT STRUCTURE, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, DEFICIT REDUCTION, DEFICITS, DEVALUATION, DISCOUNTED VALUE, DOMESTIC DEBT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ELASTICITY, EXCHANGE RATE, EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, EXTERNAL BORROWING, EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL STRUCTURE, FISCAL ADJUSTMENT, FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL PLANS, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FISCAL REACTION, FISCAL SURPLUS, FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY, FORECASTS, FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT, FOREIGN DEBT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN INTEREST RATE, GDP, GDP DEFLATOR, GNP, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, INCOME, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INTEREST INCOME, INTEREST RATES, LIQUID ASSETS, LIQUIDITY, MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, MONETARY POLICY, NET DEBT, NET EXTERNAL DEBT, NOMINAL INTEREST RATE, OPPORTUNITY COST, POLICY PACKAGE, PRIVATE SECTOR, PRIVATIZATION, PUBLIC, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC SECTOR, PUBLIC SECTOR BORROWING, PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT, PUBLIC SECTOR DEFICIT, RATE OF INFLATION, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REAL GROWTH, REAL INTEREST RATE, REAL INTEREST RATES, REAL VALUE OF MONEY, REFORM PROGRAMS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, SHORT-TERM DEBT, SIMULATION TECHNIQUES, STABILIZATION EFFORTS, STABILIZATION POLICIES, STOCK OF DEBT, TAX, TAX REVENUES, WEALTH,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/03/7465195/quantitative-approaches-fiscal-sustainability-analysis-new-world-bank-tool-applied-turkey https://hdl.handle.net/10986/7249
Tags:	Add Tag No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!