Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil Wars

The authors analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. The authors argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. The empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Montalvo, Jose G., Reynal-Querol, Marta
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2007-04
Subjects:	ARMED CONFLICT, ARMED CONFLICTS, ARMY, CIVIL WAR, CIVIL WARS, CONFLICTS, DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIASPORA, DISPUTES, DURATION OF CONFLICT, DURATION OF WARS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ETHNIC CONFLICT, ETHNIC DIVERSITY, ETHNIC DIVISIONS, ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION, ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION, ETHNIC GROUP, ETHNIC GROUPS, ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY, ETHNIC MAJORITY, ETHNIC MINORITY, ETHNIC POLARIZATION, GENOCIDE, HAZARD FUNCTION, HUMAN LIFE, INCOME, INCOME INEQUALITY, INTENSITY OF CONFLICT, INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT, JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, MEASUREMENT OF POLARIZATION, NATURAL RESOURCES, NUMBER OF ETHNIC GROUPS, OPPORTUNITY COST, PEACE, PEACE RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL SYSTEMS, POPULATION INCREASE, POST-CONFLICT, PROBABILITY OF WAR, PROGRESS, REBEL GROUP, REBEL VICTORY, REBELLION, RELIGIOUS CONFLICT, RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION, RISK FACTOR, RISK OF CONFLICT, RULE OF LAW, SOCIAL CONFLICTS, SOCIAL POLARIZATION, STATE CONFLICTS, VIOLENCE, WAR DURATION, WAR LITERATURE, WARFARE, WARTIME,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/04/7523819/ethnic-polarization-duration-civil-wars https://hdl.handle.net/10986/7009
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