Potential Impact of Higher Food Prices on Poverty : Summary Estimates for a Dozen West and Central African Countries

Concerns have been raised about the impact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. To assess the impact of rising food prices in any particular country it is necessary to look at both the impact on food producers who are poor or near-poor and could benefit from an increase in prices and food consumers who are poor or near-poor and would loose out when the price increases. In most West and Central African countries, the sign (positive or negative) of the impact is not ambiguous because a substantial share of food consumption is imported, so that the negative impact for consumers is larger than the positive impact for net sellers of locally produced foods. Yet even if the sign of the impact is clear, its magnitude is not. Using a set of recent and comprehensive household surveys, this paper summarizes findings from an assessment of the potential impact of higher food prices on the poor in a dozen countries. Rising food prices for rice, wheat, maize, and other cereals as well as for milk, sugar and vegetable oils could lead to a substantial increase in poverty in many of the countries. At the same time, the data suggest that the magnitude of the increase in poverty between different countries is likely to be different. Finally, the data suggest that a large share of the increase in poverty will consist of deeper levels of poverty among households who are already poor, even if there will also be a larger number of poor households in the various countries.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Tsimpo, Clarence, Wodon, Quentin, Backiny-Yetna, Prospere, Adoho, Franck, Joseph, George, Coulombe, Harold
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2008-10
Subjects:	AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL WAGE, AGRICULTURE, BREAD, BULLETIN, BUTTER, CASH TRANSFERS, CASSAVA, CEREAL PRICES, CEREALS, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, CORN, CULTURAL CHANGE, DECOMPOSABLE POVERTY, DEVELOPMENT ISSUES, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, ECONOMETRIC MODEL, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, EFFECTIVE POLICIES, FARM WORKERS, FARMERS, FLOUR, FOOD BASKET, FOOD CONSUMERS, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CROPS, FOOD ITEM, FOOD ITEMS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICE INFLATION, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRICING, FOOD PRODUCERS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOODS, GROUNDNUT, GROUNDNUT OIL, HEADCOUNT INDEX, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT ON POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INEQUALITY, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, LOCAL FOOD PRODUCTION, MAIZE, MILK, NATIONAL LEVEL, NEW POOR, PALM OIL, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR PEOPLE, POPULATION SIZE, POVERTY DYNAMICS, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY INDICES, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES, PRICE CHANGES, PROGRESS, REAL TERMS, REDUCTION IN POVERTY, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL POOR, RURAL WELFARE, SAFETY NET, SQUARED POVERTY GAP, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, SUGAR, URBAN AREAS, URBAN DWELLERS, URBAN HOUSEHOLDS, URBAN POPULATION, VEGETABLE OILS, WHEAT, WHEAT FLOUR,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/10/9901009/potential-impact-higher-food-prices-poverty-summary-estimates-dozen-west-central-african-countries https://hdl.handle.net/10986/6931
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