Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis : A Case Study of Turkey since the Crisis of 2001
This case study of fiscal sustainability in Turkey after the crisis in 2001 reviews and extends quantitative approaches to fiscal sustainability analysis and brings them together in a user-friendly tool applicable in a data-sparse environment. It combines a dynamic simulations approach with a steady-state consistency approach. It also incorporates user-defined stress tests and stochastic simulations to deal with uncertainty. And it derives the future distribution of debt-output ratios, evaluating the fiscal adjustment required to stabilize them. Value at Risk analysis shows that considerable risks remain unless explicit feedback rules from debt surprises to the primary surplus are implemented.
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article biblioteca |
| Published: |
World Bank
2009-02-28
|
| Subjects: | bailout, balance of payments, balance of payments crises, bank accounts, central bank, debt, debt management, debt management policies, debt stocks, deficits, financial system, fiscal deficits, fiscal policies, fiscal policy, inflation, international bank, monetary fund, monetary policy, public debt, tax, |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4497 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|