Small Area Estimation of Poverty and Wealth Using Geospatial Data
This paper offers a nontechnical review of selected applications that combine survey and geospatial data to generate small area estimates of wealth or poverty. Publicly available data from satellites and phones predicts poverty and wealth accurately across space, when evaluated against census data, and their use in model-based estimates improve the accuracy and efficiency of direct survey estimates. Although the evidence is scant, models based on interpretable features appear to predict at least as well as estimates derived from Convolutional Neural Networks. Estimates for sampled areas are significantly more accurate than those for non-sampled areas due to informative sampling. In general, estimates benefit from using geospatial data at the most disaggregated level possible. Tree-based machine learning methods appear to generate more accurate estimates than linear mixed models. Small area estimates using geospatial data can improve the design of social assistance programs, particularly when the existing targeting system is poorly designed.
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2023-07-18
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| Subjects: | CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORKS, GEOSPACIAL DATA, SATELLITE DATA, POVERTY MAPPING, SMALL AREA ESTIMATION, POVERTY AND WEALTH DATA PREDICTION, CELL PHONE DATA, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099335306282315995/IDU0ef5eaec903663043e60812b09f97c83f5551 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40028 |
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