Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Mohapatra, Sanket, Ratha, Dilip
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	2010-12-01
Subjects:	AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES, ASSETS, AVERAGE REMITTANCE, BANK DEPOSITS, BILATERAL FLOWS, BLACK MARKET, BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATES, BRAIN DRAIN, CAPITA INCOME, CAPITAL FLOWS, CREDIT RATING, CREDIT RATING AGENCIES, CREDITWORTHINESS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION, DATA ON REMITTANCES, DEBT, DEBT FLOWS, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, DEPOSITS, DEPRECIATION, DESTINATION COUNTRY, DETERMINANTS OF REMITTANCES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCES, DIASPORA, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC DOWNTURN, ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKETS, EMIGRANT REMITTANCES, EQUITY FLOWS, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS, EXPENDITURES, EXPLANATORY VARIABLES, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FIXED SHARE, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FORMAL FINANCIAL SERVICES, FUTURE PROSPECTS, FUTURE REMITTANCES, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL EXCHANGE, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES, HIGH-INCOME COUNTRY, HOME COUNTRY, HOST COUNTRIES, HOST COUNTRY, IMPORTANCE OF REMITTANCES, INCOME, INCOME GROUP, INCOME LEVEL, INCOME LEVELS, INCOMES, INFORMAL CHANNELS, INSURANCE, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL BANKS, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT WORKERS, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, KEY RISK, KEY RISK FACTOR, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS, MARKET PLAYERS, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MIGRANT REMITTANCES, MIGRANTS, MIGRATION POLICY, MONETARY FUND, NATURAL DISASTER, NATURAL DISASTERS, NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES, NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, OUTPUT, PARALLEL MARKET, PORTFOLIO, POST-CRISIS PERIOD, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS, QUOTAS, RECIPIENT COUNTRIES, RECIPIENT HOUSEHOLDS, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCE CHANNELS, REMITTANCE COSTS, REMITTANCE FLOWS, REMITTANCE INFLOWS, REMITTANCE OUTFLOWS, REMITTANCE RECEIPTS, REMITTANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT, RETURN, RETURN MIGRATION, RETURNS, RISK FACTOR, ROLE OF REMITTANCES, SAVINGS, SEND MONEY, SEND REMITTANCES, SKILLED MIGRANTS, SOVEREIGN RATINGS, STOCK DATA, STOCKS, TOTAL AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES, TRANSACTION, TRANSACTION COSTS, TRANSFER COSTS, VALUE OF REMITTANCES, VOLATILITY, VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL, WEIGHTS, WORKER REMITTANCES,
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101230132625 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3996
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