Growth in Syria : Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath
This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict.
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article biblioteca |
| Published: |
Taylor and Francis
2021-07-05
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| Subjects: | WAR, CONFLICT, RECONSTRUCTION, CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36855 |
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