From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries

Economic development is a process of continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which any country, regardless of its level of development, can succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with its comparative advantage, determined by its endowment structure. The secret winning formula for developing countries is to exploit the latecomer advantage by building up industries that are growing dynamically in more advanced fast growing countries that have endowment structures similar to theirs. By following carefully selected lead countries, latecomers can emulate the leader-follower, flying-geese pattern that has served well successfully catching-up economies since the 18th century. The emergence of large middle-income countries such as China, India, and Brazil as new growth poles in the world, and their dynamic growth and climbing of the industrial ladder, offer an unprecedented opportunity to all developing economies with income levels currently below theirs --including those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been a "follower goose," China is on the verge of graduating from low-skilled manufacturing jobs and becoming a "leading dragon." That will free up nearly 100 million labor-intensive manufacturing jobs, enough to more than quadruple manufacturing employment in low-income countries. A similar trend is emerging in other middle-income growth poles. The lower-income countries that can formulate and implement a viable strategy to capture this new industrialization opportunity will set forth on a dynamic path of structural change that can lead to poverty reduction and prosperity.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Lin, Justin Yifu
Language:	English
Published:	2011-06-01
Subjects:	ADVANCED COUNTRIES, ADVANCED COUNTRY, ADVANCED ECONOMIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, BANKRUPTCY, BILATERAL TRADE, BUSINESS CLIMATE, BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT, BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL INTENSITY, CAPITAL RATIO, CLOSED ECONOMY, COLONIALISM, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY EXPORTS, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES, COMPETITIVE MARKET, COMPETITIVE MARKETS, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER GOODS, CREATION OF JOBS, CREDIT RATIONING, CURRENCY, CURRENCY APPRECIATION, DATA AVAILABILITY, DATA SETS, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEMOCRACY, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPING REGIONS, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOMES, DIVERSIFICATION, DIVIDENDS, DOMESTIC ECONOMY, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC COMPETITION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION, ECONOMIC LITERATURE, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POWERS, ECONOMIC PROGRESS, ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS, ECONOMIC REFORMS, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMIC TAKEOFF, ECONOMIC THEORY, ECONOMICS RESEARCH, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING ECONOMY, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, EMPIRICAL LITERATURE, EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, EMPIRICAL WORK, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT SECTORS, EXPORTS, EXTERNALITIES, EXTERNALITY, EXTREME POVERTY, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN FIRMS, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL EXPORTS, GLOBAL MARKET, GLOBALIZATION, GOVERNMENT INTERVENTIONS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME GROUP, INCOME GROUPS, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME LEVELS, INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES, INDUSTRIAL POLICY, INDUSTRIAL SECTOR, INDUSTRIALIZATION, INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, INTANGIBLE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKETS, LARGE-SCALE INVESTMENT, LEGAL FRAMEWORK, LIVING STANDARDS, LONG-TERM GROWTH, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, LOW-INCOME COUNTRY, LOW-INCOME ECONOMIES, MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, MARKET FAILURE, MARKET FAILURES, MARKET PARTICIPANTS, MARKET SHARES, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRY, MOBILE PHONES, MONOPOLY, MULTIPLIER EFFECTS, NATIONAL ECONOMIES, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL DISASTERS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, OPEN ECONOMY, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOME LEVELS, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POLICY ANALYSIS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POOR COUNTRIES, POSITIVE EFFECTS, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POWER PARITY, PRIMARY PRODUCTS, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH, PRIVATIZATION, PRODUCT MARKETS, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTION STRUCTURE, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROTECTIONISM, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID GROWTH, RAPID INDUSTRIALIZATION, REAL GDP, RELATIVE IMPORTANCE, RELATIVE PRICES, RENT SEEKING, RICH COUNTRIES, RURAL AREAS, SECTORAL COMPOSITION, SMALL COUNTRIES, SMALL ECONOMIES, STANDARD DEVIATION, STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES, STRUCTURAL CHANGE, SURPLUS LABOR, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, TAX, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, THIRD WORLD, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL OUTPUT, TRANSACTION COSTS, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPARENCY INITIATIVE, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNSKILLED LABOR, URBAN AREAS, URBANIZATION, VALUE ADDED, VOLATILITY, WAGE RATES, WAGES, WEALTH, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD ECONOMIES, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD INVESTMENT REPORT, WORLD MARKETS,
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110622143522 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/3466
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