Using Lebanon's Large Capital Inflows to Foster Sustainable Long-Term Growth

This report aims to provide a diagnostic of the Lebanese economy and policy advice to a broad audience. To that effect, an analysis of the dynamics of foreign inflows and of the economy over the past decades is undertaken. Specifically, this report attempts to provide a vision for where would Lebanon be in 15 to 20 years if needed structural reforms are implemented. This report provides a quantification of the growth impact of these reforms, taken individually or combined. By doing so, it gives both an indication on the opportunity costs of not reforming and provides a vision on what the development stage could be in Lebanon in 15 to 20 years if reforms are implemented. The report includes a set of econometric simulations and analysis aiming: 1) to establish the relation between the dynamic of foreign financial inflows and deposits over a period of 20 years, 2) to establish the relation between deposits as proxy for foreign financial inflows from one side; and oil price as proxy for regional wealth, macroeconomic and security stability, and policy variables from the other side and, 3) to estimate the relation between economic fluctuations from one side; and bank lending as one of the channels of transmission of foreign financial inflows, and debtor interest rate from the other side.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Other Public Sector Study biblioteca
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank 2012-01-01
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING, ACCUMULATION OF RESERVES, AGGREGATE DEMAND, ASSET DIVERSIFICATION, ASSETS, BALANCE OF PAYMENT, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE SHEET, BANK CREDITS, BANK CURRENCY, BANK SECRECY, BANKING REGULATION, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SECTORS, BANKING SYSTEM, BENEFICIARIES, BONDS, BUDGET CONSTRAINT, BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, BUDGET DEFICITS, BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL GAINS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CD, CENTRAL BANK, CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS, CHECKS, COLLATERAL, COLLATERAL REQUIREMENTS, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CREDIBILITY, CREDITOR, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, DEBT, DEBT REDUCTIONS, DEBTOR, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DISTORTIONS, DOMESTIC BANKING, DOMESTIC BANKING SYSTEM, DOMESTIC BANKS, DOMESTIC CURRENCY, DOMESTIC INTEREST RATE, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC PRICES, DUTCH DISEASE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EQUIPMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE REGIME, EXOGENOUS FACTORS, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPOSURE, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL ENGINEERING, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL INFLOWS, FINANCIAL INFORMATION, FINANCIAL INTEGRATION, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL OPENNESS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FINANCIAL STABILITY, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FISCAL AUTHORITIES, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED CAPITAL, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE, FLOWS OF CAPITAL, FOREIGN BANKS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN CURRENCIES, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN INFLOWS, FOREIGN INVESTORS, FOREIGN TRADE, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, HOLDING, HOME COUNTRY, HOST COUNTRIES, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN RESOURCES, IMPORT, IMPORTS, INCOME, INFLATION, INFLATION TAX, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATE SPREAD, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL INTEREST, INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTING, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, JOB CREATION, LABOR MARKET, LEGAL ENVIRONMENT, LEGAL IMPEDIMENTS, LIBERALIZATION, LIQUID INSTRUMENTS, LOAN, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOCAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, LOCAL MARKET, LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY, MARKET DEVELOPMENT, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, MONEY SUPPLY, MORAL HAZARD, NATIONAL SAVING, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OPEN ECONOMY, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, OUTPUT, OUTPUT GAP, POLICY RESPONSES, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL SYSTEM, PORTFOLIO, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE SERIES, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SAVING, PRIVATE-PUBLIC PARTNERSHIPS, PRODUCTION STRUCTURE, PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENTS, PROPERTY RIGHT, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENFORCEMENT, PROPERTY RIGHTS PROTECTION, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC DEFICIT, PUBLIC DEFICITS, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC SAVING, PUBLIC SPENDING, PUBLIC UTILITIES, REAL ESTATE, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REFORM PROGRAM, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS, REMITTANCES, RESERVES, RETURNS, RISK SHARING, RULE OF LAW, SAVINGS, SAVINGS RATES, SHORT-TERM CAPITAL, SHORT-TERM DEBT, SHORT-TERM DEPOSITS, STABILIZATION OF EXCHANGE RATE, STOCK EXCHANGE, STRONG CONFIDENCE, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, TAX, TAX EXEMPTIONS, TAX POLICIES, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TRADE SECTORS, TRANSACTION, TREASURY, TREASURY BILLS, VALUATION, VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT,
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000356161_20120305234236 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2727
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