Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update, June 2012

The World Bank's Mongolia quarterly economic update assesses recent economic and social developments and policies in Mongolia. It also presents findings of ongoing World Bank activities in Mongolia. The Mongolian economy is continuing to grow at a very rapid pace, expanding by 16.7 percent year-on-year (yoy) in first quarter (Q1). This high growth however, is also fuelling inflation which touched 16 percent in April, well above the Bank of Mongolia's (BoM) inflation target of 10 percent. Increasing government spending on wages and salaries, large cash handouts to the general population, and burgeoning capital expenditures are adding to the demand pressures. Meanwhile, the worsening global economic outlook, in particular a faster than expected slowdown in China, Mongolia's largest trading partner, has negatively impacted export growth, resulting in deterioration in external balances. Under these circumstances, the advice to Mongolian policy-makers is to 'hold your horses' and adopt a more cautious macro-economic stance, tightening both monetary and fiscal policy to prevent further over-heating of the economy. The global economic outlook has deteriorated considerably in recent months. Financial conditions in high-income Europe, higher oil prices, and, most importantly, the slowing Chinese economy pose risks for Mongolia. The channels through which these operate include financial and trade linkages namely volatility in commodity prices and through demand from China for its mineral exports. Indeed, signs of these are already visible as demonstrated by the decline in exports in April. Other financial market linkages should also not be discounted: Mongolia's banking system, which has shown signs of overheating over the past year, is highly dollarized, with about a third of deposits denominated in dollars and easy convertibility out of the Mongolia Togrog. A sharp economic slowdown and/or an increased macroeconomic instability could expose the liquidity and asset quality vulnerabilities in individual banks and system overall.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Report biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC 2012-06
Subjects:	ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY, ACCOUNTING, ACCUMULATION OF RESERVES, ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS, ARREARS, ASSET QUALITY, BAILOUTS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE SHEET, BANK ASSETS, BANK BALANCE SHEETS, BANK LENDING, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BASIS POINTS, BASKET OF GOODS, BENEFICIARIES, BENEFICIARY, BLACK MARKET, BOND, BOND ISSUANCE, BONDS, BORROWING COSTS, BUDGETING, BUFFER, BUFFERS, CAPACITY BUILDING, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, CAPITAL PROJECTS, CASH FLOW, CASH TRANSFERS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANK BILLS, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMERCIAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CONTINGENT LIABILITIES, CORE INFLATION, CORPORATE BOND, CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, COST OF CAPITAL, COUPON, CREDIBILITY, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDITORS, CURRENCY MARKETS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT ISSUANCES, DEBT SERVICE, DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS, DEBT SUSTAINABILITY, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DEVELOPMENT BANKING, DEVELOPMENT BANKS, DISBURSEMENT, DOMESTIC CAPITAL, DOMESTIC CAPITAL MARKETS, DOMESTIC CREDIT, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC GOODS, DOMESTIC INFLATION, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN, EMPLOYMENT, ENABLING ENVIRONMENT, EQUIPMENT, EXCESS DEMAND, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY, EXCISE TAXES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT VOLUMES, EXPORTERS, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL BALANCES, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL MARKET, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICIES, FISCAL POLICY, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY DEPOSITS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL TRADE, GOLD, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, HIGH INFLATION, HIGH INFLATION EPISODE, HOLDING, HOUSING, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMBALANCES, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORTS, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME TAX, INFLATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION TARGET, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BOND, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL DEBT, INTERNATIONAL DEBT MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL STANDARD, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTING, INVESTMENT BOOM, INVESTMENT SPENDING, INVESTOR INTEREST, IPO, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LIQUIDITY, LIVING STANDARD, LOAN PORTFOLIO, LOAN PORTFOLIOS, LOAN RATE, LOCAL CURRENCY, LONG-TERM ASSETS, LOSS OF REVENUES, MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY, MARKET FAILURE, MARKET PRICES, MATURITY, MONETARY POLICY, MORTGAGE, MORTGAGE LOANS, MORTGAGES, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NPL, OIL PRICES, OUTSTANDING DEPOSITS, OUTSTANDING STOCK, OUTTURN, PERSONAL INCOME, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INFLOWS, POVERTY LEVEL, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE PLACEMENT, PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSING, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC HOUSING, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC POLICIES, PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID GROWTH, RATES OF RETURN, RATES OF RETURNS, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL EXCHANGE RATES, REAL SECTOR, REDEMPTION, REMITTANCES, REPAYMENT, REPAYMENTS, RESERVE, RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RESERVES, RETURN, RISK MANAGEMENT, SAFETY NET, SAVINGS, SHAREHOLDERS, SLOWDOWN, SMALL BORROWERS, SOLVENCY, SOVEREIGN DEBT, SOVEREIGN GUARANTEE, STOCK MARKET, TAX, TIER 1 CAPITAL, TIME DEPOSITS, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL IMPORTS, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DATA, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADING, TRADING PARTNER, TRADING PARTNERS, TRANSPORT, UNCERTAINTY, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, WAGES, WEIGHTS, WITHDRAWAL,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/642031468053409919/Mongolia-quarterly-economic-update-June-2012 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27241
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