Estimating Poverty Rates in Target Populations
The performance of the Simple Poverty Scorecard is compared against the performance of established regression-based estimators. All estimates are benchmarked against observed poverty status based on household expenditure (or income) data from household socioeconomic surveys that span nearly a decade and are representative of subnational populations. When the models all adopt the same "one-size-fits-all" training approach, there is no meaningful difference in performance and the Simple Poverty Scorecard is as good as any of the regression-based estimators. The findings change, however, when the regression-based estimators are "trained" on "training sets" that more closely resemble potential subpopulation test sets. In this case, regression-based models outperform the nationally calculated Simple Poverty Scorecard in terms of bias and variance. These findings highlight the fundamental trade-off between simplicity of use and accuracy.
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016-08
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| Subjects: | simple poverty scorecard, PPI, headcount poverty rate, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26695758/estimating-poverty-rates-target-populations-assessment-simple-poverty-scorecard-alternative-approaches https://hdl.handle.net/10986/25038 |
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