Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting
Low-income countries’ hydrometeorological services often face considerable constraints in delivering the information needed to effectively drive early warning and climate adaptation, which, if improved, could generate socioeconomic benefits of about US$1.4 billion per year. Modern weather forecasting adopts a cascading approach where numerical products developed by global producing centers feed regional and national models, with national forecasters assimilating these and other data to produce information customized for local users. The system depends on global producing centers sharing their products, often through voluntary action without dedicated financing, which is not sustainable and does not fully leverage the capacity of global producing centers to provide tailored information. It would be economically viable for global producing centers to provide their full suite of services to low-income countries, producing likely global socioeconomic benefits of US$200 million to US$500 million per year, outweighing the costs by about 80 to one. Existing global producing centers’ capacities and their potential benefits for lowincome countries fulfill the utilitarian principal. Global numerical weather prediction should therefore be treated as a global public good. However, although recent global development and climate agreements clearly suggest that improving forecasting in low-income countries should be a target of international cooperation, official development assistance financing of high-income country global producing centers to provide products to low-income countries would be considered tied aid. Specialized mechanisms, such as the Green Climate Fund, could provide legitimate means to finance global producing centers to provide global public services in support of low-income countries. However, to realize the potential benefits, significant investment is needed in regional and national forecasting, early warning, and preparedness capacities.
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dig-okr-1098624151 |
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koha |
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Banco Mundial |
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Estados Unidos |
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US |
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Bibliográfico |
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En linea |
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biblioteca |
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Biblioteca del Banco Mundial |
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English en_US |
| topic |
SKILLS FORECASTS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES ECONOMIC GROWTH DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE PRODUCTION TEMPERATURE VALUATION TELECOMMUNICATION INCOME WMO EXPECTATIONS SATELLITES METEOROLOGY GROUPS DISCOUNT RATE DATA COLLECTION HYDROLOGY WIND PROGRAMS INFORMATION SERVICES COST ESTIMATES ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS WELFARE ATMOSPHERE INCENTIVES CAPACITY BUILDING MODELS PROJECTS PLANNING DECISIONS CITIES DECISION- MAKING AIR SUPPLY SIDE SEVERE WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER TRENDS PLANS RADIATION COLLABORATION KNOWLEDGE PHYSICS DEVELOPMENT PRESENT VALUE INFLUENCE SCENARIOS COSTS TROPICS TRAINING ECONOMIC BENEFITS INFORMATION RETRIEVAL INFORMATION SERVICES CAPACITY ECONOMIC COOPERATION GLOBAL WARMING EXTERNALITIES EXPERTS CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTING SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES RESEARCH CYCLONES CAPITAL INVESTMENTS AVERAGING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSES PRECIPITATION FINANCE INVESTMENT DECISIONS NATIONAL MODELS DATA SHARING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY EMISSION TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAD CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC SCIENCE COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS PARTICIPATION ANNUAL COSTS VALUE ECONOMIC SECTORS CLIMATE DEMAND MARGINAL COSTS CLIMATE SYSTEM DATA SERVICES AGRICULTURE DECISION-MAKING COST-BENEFIT DECISION MAKING MARKET FINANCIAL LOSSES POLICY MEDIA DISCOUNT RATES GDP GOODS OCEANS THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE TURBULENCE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER INVESTMENT CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES PARTNERS TROPICAL CYCLONES ALLOCATION SUPPLY RAIN INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT FORECASTING SERVICES FUNDING COMMUNICATION COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS USER GROUPS SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES CLIMATOLOGY OUTCOMES HYDROMETEOROLOGY PUBLIC GOOD FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADVERSE EFFECTS COST ANALYSIS BENEFITS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ENERGY SKILLS FORECASTS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES ECONOMIC GROWTH DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE PRODUCTION TEMPERATURE VALUATION TELECOMMUNICATION INCOME WMO EXPECTATIONS SATELLITES METEOROLOGY GROUPS DISCOUNT RATE DATA COLLECTION HYDROLOGY WIND PROGRAMS INFORMATION SERVICES COST ESTIMATES ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS WELFARE ATMOSPHERE INCENTIVES CAPACITY BUILDING MODELS PROJECTS PLANNING DECISIONS CITIES DECISION- MAKING AIR SUPPLY SIDE SEVERE WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER TRENDS PLANS RADIATION COLLABORATION KNOWLEDGE PHYSICS DEVELOPMENT PRESENT VALUE INFLUENCE SCENARIOS COSTS TROPICS TRAINING ECONOMIC BENEFITS INFORMATION RETRIEVAL INFORMATION SERVICES CAPACITY ECONOMIC COOPERATION GLOBAL WARMING EXTERNALITIES EXPERTS CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTING SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES RESEARCH CYCLONES CAPITAL INVESTMENTS AVERAGING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSES PRECIPITATION FINANCE INVESTMENT DECISIONS NATIONAL MODELS DATA SHARING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY EMISSION TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAD CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC SCIENCE COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS PARTICIPATION ANNUAL COSTS VALUE ECONOMIC SECTORS CLIMATE DEMAND MARGINAL COSTS CLIMATE SYSTEM DATA SERVICES AGRICULTURE DECISION-MAKING COST-BENEFIT DECISION MAKING MARKET FINANCIAL LOSSES POLICY MEDIA DISCOUNT RATES GDP GOODS OCEANS THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE TURBULENCE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER INVESTMENT CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES PARTNERS TROPICAL CYCLONES ALLOCATION SUPPLY RAIN INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT FORECASTING SERVICES FUNDING COMMUNICATION COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS USER GROUPS SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES CLIMATOLOGY OUTCOMES HYDROMETEOROLOGY PUBLIC GOOD FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADVERSE EFFECTS COST ANALYSIS BENEFITS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ENERGY |
| spellingShingle |
SKILLS FORECASTS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES ECONOMIC GROWTH DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE PRODUCTION TEMPERATURE VALUATION TELECOMMUNICATION INCOME WMO EXPECTATIONS SATELLITES METEOROLOGY GROUPS DISCOUNT RATE DATA COLLECTION HYDROLOGY WIND PROGRAMS INFORMATION SERVICES COST ESTIMATES ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS WELFARE ATMOSPHERE INCENTIVES CAPACITY BUILDING MODELS PROJECTS PLANNING DECISIONS CITIES DECISION- MAKING AIR SUPPLY SIDE SEVERE WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER TRENDS PLANS RADIATION COLLABORATION KNOWLEDGE PHYSICS DEVELOPMENT PRESENT VALUE INFLUENCE SCENARIOS COSTS TROPICS TRAINING ECONOMIC BENEFITS INFORMATION RETRIEVAL INFORMATION SERVICES CAPACITY ECONOMIC COOPERATION GLOBAL WARMING EXTERNALITIES EXPERTS CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTING SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES RESEARCH CYCLONES CAPITAL INVESTMENTS AVERAGING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSES PRECIPITATION FINANCE INVESTMENT DECISIONS NATIONAL MODELS DATA SHARING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY EMISSION TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAD CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC SCIENCE COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS PARTICIPATION ANNUAL COSTS VALUE ECONOMIC SECTORS CLIMATE DEMAND MARGINAL COSTS CLIMATE SYSTEM DATA SERVICES AGRICULTURE DECISION-MAKING COST-BENEFIT DECISION MAKING MARKET FINANCIAL LOSSES POLICY MEDIA DISCOUNT RATES GDP GOODS OCEANS THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE TURBULENCE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER INVESTMENT CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES PARTNERS TROPICAL CYCLONES ALLOCATION SUPPLY RAIN INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT FORECASTING SERVICES FUNDING COMMUNICATION COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS USER GROUPS SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES CLIMATOLOGY OUTCOMES HYDROMETEOROLOGY PUBLIC GOOD FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADVERSE EFFECTS COST ANALYSIS BENEFITS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ENERGY SKILLS FORECASTS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES ECONOMIC GROWTH DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE PRODUCTION TEMPERATURE VALUATION TELECOMMUNICATION INCOME WMO EXPECTATIONS SATELLITES METEOROLOGY GROUPS DISCOUNT RATE DATA COLLECTION HYDROLOGY WIND PROGRAMS INFORMATION SERVICES COST ESTIMATES ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS WELFARE ATMOSPHERE INCENTIVES CAPACITY BUILDING MODELS PROJECTS PLANNING DECISIONS CITIES DECISION- MAKING AIR SUPPLY SIDE SEVERE WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER TRENDS PLANS RADIATION COLLABORATION KNOWLEDGE PHYSICS DEVELOPMENT PRESENT VALUE INFLUENCE SCENARIOS COSTS TROPICS TRAINING ECONOMIC BENEFITS INFORMATION RETRIEVAL INFORMATION SERVICES CAPACITY ECONOMIC COOPERATION GLOBAL WARMING EXTERNALITIES EXPERTS CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTING SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES RESEARCH CYCLONES CAPITAL INVESTMENTS AVERAGING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSES PRECIPITATION FINANCE INVESTMENT DECISIONS NATIONAL MODELS DATA SHARING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY EMISSION TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAD CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC SCIENCE COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS PARTICIPATION ANNUAL COSTS VALUE ECONOMIC SECTORS CLIMATE DEMAND MARGINAL COSTS CLIMATE SYSTEM DATA SERVICES AGRICULTURE DECISION-MAKING COST-BENEFIT DECISION MAKING MARKET FINANCIAL LOSSES POLICY MEDIA DISCOUNT RATES GDP GOODS OCEANS THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE TURBULENCE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER INVESTMENT CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES PARTNERS TROPICAL CYCLONES ALLOCATION SUPPLY RAIN INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT FORECASTING SERVICES FUNDING COMMUNICATION COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS USER GROUPS SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES CLIMATOLOGY OUTCOMES HYDROMETEOROLOGY PUBLIC GOOD FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADVERSE EFFECTS COST ANALYSIS BENEFITS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ENERGY Kull, Daniel Graessle, Corinne Aryan, Barzin Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting |
| description |
Low-income countries’ hydrometeorological services often
face considerable constraints in delivering the information
needed to effectively drive early warning and climate adaptation,
which, if improved, could generate socioeconomic
benefits of about US$1.4 billion per year. Modern weather
forecasting adopts a cascading approach where numerical
products developed by global producing centers feed
regional and national models, with national forecasters
assimilating these and other data to produce information
customized for local users. The system depends on global
producing centers sharing their products, often through
voluntary action without dedicated financing, which is
not sustainable and does not fully leverage the capacity
of global producing centers to provide tailored information.
It would be economically viable for global producing
centers to provide their full suite of services to low-income
countries, producing likely global socioeconomic benefits of
US$200 million to US$500 million per year, outweighing
the costs by about 80 to one. Existing global producing
centers’ capacities and their potential benefits for lowincome
countries fulfill the utilitarian principal. Global
numerical weather prediction should therefore be treated
as a global public good. However, although recent global
development and climate agreements clearly suggest that
improving forecasting in low-income countries should
be a target of international cooperation, official development
assistance financing of high-income country global
producing centers to provide products to low-income
countries would be considered tied aid. Specialized mechanisms,
such as the Green Climate Fund, could provide
legitimate means to finance global producing centers to
provide global public services in support of low-income
countries. However, to realize the potential benefits, significant
investment is needed in regional and national
forecasting, early warning, and preparedness capacities. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| topic_facet |
SKILLS FORECASTS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES ECONOMIC GROWTH DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE PRODUCTION TEMPERATURE VALUATION TELECOMMUNICATION INCOME WMO EXPECTATIONS SATELLITES METEOROLOGY GROUPS DISCOUNT RATE DATA COLLECTION HYDROLOGY WIND PROGRAMS INFORMATION SERVICES COST ESTIMATES ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS WELFARE ATMOSPHERE INCENTIVES CAPACITY BUILDING MODELS PROJECTS PLANNING DECISIONS CITIES DECISION- MAKING AIR SUPPLY SIDE SEVERE WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER TRENDS PLANS RADIATION COLLABORATION KNOWLEDGE PHYSICS DEVELOPMENT PRESENT VALUE INFLUENCE SCENARIOS COSTS TROPICS TRAINING ECONOMIC BENEFITS INFORMATION RETRIEVAL INFORMATION SERVICES CAPACITY ECONOMIC COOPERATION GLOBAL WARMING EXTERNALITIES EXPERTS CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTING SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES RESEARCH CYCLONES CAPITAL INVESTMENTS AVERAGING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSES PRECIPITATION FINANCE INVESTMENT DECISIONS NATIONAL MODELS DATA SHARING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY EMISSION TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAD CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC SCIENCE COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS PARTICIPATION ANNUAL COSTS VALUE ECONOMIC SECTORS CLIMATE DEMAND MARGINAL COSTS CLIMATE SYSTEM DATA SERVICES AGRICULTURE DECISION-MAKING COST-BENEFIT DECISION MAKING MARKET FINANCIAL LOSSES POLICY MEDIA DISCOUNT RATES GDP GOODS OCEANS THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE TURBULENCE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER INVESTMENT CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES PARTNERS TROPICAL CYCLONES ALLOCATION SUPPLY RAIN INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT FORECASTING SERVICES FUNDING COMMUNICATION COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS USER GROUPS SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES CLIMATOLOGY OUTCOMES HYDROMETEOROLOGY PUBLIC GOOD FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADVERSE EFFECTS COST ANALYSIS BENEFITS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ENERGY |
| author |
Kull, Daniel Graessle, Corinne Aryan, Barzin |
| author_facet |
Kull, Daniel Graessle, Corinne Aryan, Barzin |
| author_sort |
Kull, Daniel |
| title |
Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting |
| title_short |
Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting |
| title_full |
Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting |
| title_fullStr |
Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting |
| title_sort |
strengthening national hydrometeorological services through cascading forecasting |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2016-03 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26089546/strengthening-national-hydrometeorological-services-through-cascading-forecasting-investing-sustainability-impact-across-global-regional-national-centers https://hdl.handle.net/10986/24151 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT kulldaniel strengtheningnationalhydrometeorologicalservicesthroughcascadingforecasting AT graesslecorinne strengtheningnationalhydrometeorologicalservicesthroughcascadingforecasting AT aryanbarzin strengtheningnationalhydrometeorologicalservicesthroughcascadingforecasting AT kulldaniel investingforsustainabilityandimpactacrossglobalregionalandnationalcenters AT graesslecorinne investingforsustainabilityandimpactacrossglobalregionalandnationalcenters AT aryanbarzin investingforsustainabilityandimpactacrossglobalregionalandnationalcenters |
| _version_ |
1807157763066822656 |
| spelling |
dig-okr-10986241512024-08-07T20:01:08Z Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting Investing for Sustainability and Impact across Global, Regional, and National Centers Kull, Daniel Graessle, Corinne Aryan, Barzin SKILLS FORECASTS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTIES ECONOMIC GROWTH DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE PRODUCTION TEMPERATURE VALUATION TELECOMMUNICATION INCOME WMO EXPECTATIONS SATELLITES METEOROLOGY GROUPS DISCOUNT RATE DATA COLLECTION HYDROLOGY WIND PROGRAMS INFORMATION SERVICES COST ESTIMATES ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS WELFARE ATMOSPHERE INCENTIVES CAPACITY BUILDING MODELS PROJECTS PLANNING DECISIONS CITIES DECISION- MAKING AIR SUPPLY SIDE SEVERE WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER TRENDS PLANS RADIATION COLLABORATION KNOWLEDGE PHYSICS DEVELOPMENT PRESENT VALUE INFLUENCE SCENARIOS COSTS TROPICS TRAINING ECONOMIC BENEFITS INFORMATION RETRIEVAL INFORMATION SERVICES CAPACITY ECONOMIC COOPERATION GLOBAL WARMING EXTERNALITIES EXPERTS CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTING SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES RESEARCH CYCLONES CAPITAL INVESTMENTS AVERAGING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT SENSITIVITY ANALYSES PRECIPITATION FINANCE INVESTMENT DECISIONS NATIONAL MODELS DATA SHARING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY EMISSION TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAD CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC SCIENCE COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS PARTICIPATION ANNUAL COSTS VALUE ECONOMIC SECTORS CLIMATE DEMAND MARGINAL COSTS CLIMATE SYSTEM DATA SERVICES AGRICULTURE DECISION-MAKING COST-BENEFIT DECISION MAKING MARKET EMAIL FINANCIAL LOSSES POLICY MEDIA DISCOUNT RATES GDP GOODS OCEANS THEORY ECONOMIES OF SCALE TURBULENCE TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER INVESTMENT CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES PARTNERS TROPICAL CYCLONES ALLOCATION SUPPLY RAIN INVESTMENTS RISK MANAGEMENT FORECASTING SERVICES FUNDING COMMUNICATION COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS USER GROUPS SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES CLIMATOLOGY OUTCOMES HYDROMETEOROLOGY PUBLIC GOOD FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADVERSE EFFECTS COST ANALYSIS BENEFITS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ENERGY Low-income countries’ hydrometeorological services often face considerable constraints in delivering the information needed to effectively drive early warning and climate adaptation, which, if improved, could generate socioeconomic benefits of about US$1.4 billion per year. Modern weather forecasting adopts a cascading approach where numerical products developed by global producing centers feed regional and national models, with national forecasters assimilating these and other data to produce information customized for local users. The system depends on global producing centers sharing their products, often through voluntary action without dedicated financing, which is not sustainable and does not fully leverage the capacity of global producing centers to provide tailored information. It would be economically viable for global producing centers to provide their full suite of services to low-income countries, producing likely global socioeconomic benefits of US$200 million to US$500 million per year, outweighing the costs by about 80 to one. Existing global producing centers’ capacities and their potential benefits for lowincome countries fulfill the utilitarian principal. Global numerical weather prediction should therefore be treated as a global public good. However, although recent global development and climate agreements clearly suggest that improving forecasting in low-income countries should be a target of international cooperation, official development assistance financing of high-income country global producing centers to provide products to low-income countries would be considered tied aid. Specialized mechanisms, such as the Green Climate Fund, could provide legitimate means to finance global producing centers to provide global public services in support of low-income countries. However, to realize the potential benefits, significant investment is needed in regional and national forecasting, early warning, and preparedness capacities. 2016-04-26T16:49:07Z 2016-04-26T16:49:07Z 2016-03 Working Paper Document de travail Documento de trabajo http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26089546/strengthening-national-hydrometeorological-services-through-cascading-forecasting-investing-sustainability-impact-across-global-regional-national-centers https://hdl.handle.net/10986/24151 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7609 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank application/pdf World Bank, Washington, DC |