Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting

Low-income countries’ hydrometeorological services often face considerable constraints in delivering the information needed to effectively drive early warning and climate adaptation, which, if improved, could generate socioeconomic benefits of about US$1.4 billion per year. Modern weather forecasting adopts a cascading approach where numerical products developed by global producing centers feed regional and national models, with national forecasters assimilating these and other data to produce information customized for local users. The system depends on global producing centers sharing their products, often through voluntary action without dedicated financing, which is not sustainable and does not fully leverage the capacity of global producing centers to provide tailored information. It would be economically viable for global producing centers to provide their full suite of services to low-income countries, producing likely global socioeconomic benefits of US$200 million to US$500 million per year, outweighing the costs by about 80 to one. Existing global producing centers’ capacities and their potential benefits for lowincome countries fulfill the utilitarian principal. Global numerical weather prediction should therefore be treated as a global public good. However, although recent global development and climate agreements clearly suggest that improving forecasting in low-income countries should be a target of international cooperation, official development assistance financing of high-income country global producing centers to provide products to low-income countries would be considered tied aid. Specialized mechanisms, such as the Green Climate Fund, could provide legitimate means to finance global producing centers to provide global public services in support of low-income countries. However, to realize the potential benefits, significant investment is needed in regional and national forecasting, early warning, and preparedness capacities.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Kull, Daniel, Graessle, Corinne, Aryan, Barzin
Format:	Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016-03
Subjects:	SKILLS, FORECASTS, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, UNCERTAINTIES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, PRODUCTION, TEMPERATURE, VALUATION, TELECOMMUNICATION, INCOME, WMO, EXPECTATIONS, SATELLITES, METEOROLOGY, GROUPS, DISCOUNT RATE, DATA COLLECTION, HYDROLOGY, WIND, PROGRAMS, INFORMATION, SERVICES, COST ESTIMATES, ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS, WELFARE, ATMOSPHERE, INCENTIVES, CAPACITY BUILDING, MODELS, PROJECTS, PLANNING, DECISIONS, CITIES, DECISION- MAKING, AIR, SUPPLY SIDE, SEVERE WEATHER, EXTREME WEATHER, TRENDS, PLANS, RADIATION, COLLABORATION, KNOWLEDGE, PHYSICS, DEVELOPMENT, PRESENT VALUE, INFLUENCE, SCENARIOS, COSTS, TROPICS, TRAINING, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, INFORMATION RETRIEVAL, INFORMATION SERVICES, CAPACITY, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, GLOBAL WARMING, EXTERNALITIES, EXPERTS, CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, FORECASTING, SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS, DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES, RESEARCH, CYCLONES, CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, AVERAGING, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, SENSITIVITY ANALYSES, PRECIPITATION, FINANCE, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, NATIONAL MODELS, DATA SHARING, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, TECHNOLOGY, EMISSION, TROPICAL CYCLONE, LEAD, CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, SCIENCE, COST–BENEFIT ANALYSIS, PARTICIPATION, ANNUAL COSTS, VALUE, ECONOMIC SECTORS, CLIMATE, DEMAND, MARGINAL COSTS, CLIMATE SYSTEM, DATA SERVICES, AGRICULTURE, DECISION-MAKING, COST-BENEFIT, DECISION MAKING, MARKET, EMAIL, FINANCIAL LOSSES, POLICY, MEDIA, DISCOUNT RATES, GDP, GOODS, OCEANS, THEORY, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, TURBULENCE, TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER, INVESTMENT, CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT, POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES, PARTNERS, TROPICAL CYCLONES, ALLOCATION, SUPPLY, RAIN, INVESTMENTS, RISK MANAGEMENT, FORECASTING SERVICES, FUNDING, COMMUNICATION, COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS, USER GROUPS, SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY, RENEWABLE ENERGY, TECHNOLOGIES, CLIMATOLOGY, OUTCOMES, HYDROMETEOROLOGY, PUBLIC GOOD, FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, ADVERSE EFFECTS, COST ANALYSIS, BENEFITS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, ENERGY,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26089546/strengthening-national-hydrometeorological-services-through-cascading-forecasting-investing-sustainability-impact-across-global-regional-national-centers https://hdl.handle.net/10986/24151
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